Three races remain to decide the four drivers who will advance to the Championship 4 finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
Sunday’s First Data 500 at Martinsville Speedway begins the Round of 8 for the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs. Martinsville, Texas Motor Speedway and ISM Raceway in Phoenix will determine the quartet eligible to run for the title on November 18thin Miami.
After a dramatic opening round highlighted by a last lap finish at Charlotte Motor Speedway’s Roval, the just completed round of three races in Dover, Talladega and Kansas was tame by comparison. However when the checkered flag flew in last Sunday’s Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas, Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr., Chase Elliott, Kurt Busch, Joey Logano, Clint Bowyer and Aric Almirola all remained alive in the championship picture.
It’s hard to imagine any of the “Big 3” in Harvick, Kyle Busch and Truex Jr. not advancing to run for the crown with the season the trio has had up until now. Only Truex Jr. has shown some signs of a performance dip from the lofty standards set most of the campaign. Harvick and Kyle Busch, while not winning with anything near the regularity, had been strong with only a couple mistakes in Dover and Kansas keeping Harvick from having another pair of wins to add to his total of seven.
Based on past stats Kyle Busch should have a cakewalk through the Round of 8. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver finishes 2nd, 1stand 2ndat the trio of races a year ago and he comes into the next round off a runner-up finish in Kansas. Put Busch into the Miami field.
Ditto Harvick who also fares well at the three tracks that lie ahead in this round. While his track record at Phoenix is remarkable, Harvick is not too shabby at either Texas or Martinsville where he has two straight top five performances.
Truex Jr. seems the most vulnerable of the “Big 3.” He’s been “off” the last two weeks, although he finished fifth in Kansas after what the defending champion called a “blue collar” effort. While he’s not yet won a short track race during his Cup career, Truex Jr.’s last two outings at Martinsville have been in the top-five. There’s enough there that Truex Jr. will also advance to Miami.
Chase Elliott has risen to the next logical choice to join the Championship 4. His third win of the season came at Kansas when he took advantage of a pit road speeding penalty by Harvick and led the last 44 laps on his way to Victory Lane. If you believe in momentum, look no further than Elliott who will have a chance to run for his first Cup title.
The remaining four drivers need two things to upset the apple cart; extraordinary performances and problems for the quartet ahead on the Playoff grid. A win by Kurt Busch, Logano, Bowyer or Almirola over the next three races automatically takes up a berth at Miami. Bowyer did win at Martinsville in the spring but nobody has swept races there since 2010.
I’ll take the “Big 3” and special guest Chase Elliott to move ahead to Miami and have the chance to win the 2018 Cup title.
