Projections for Cup Series title race

One. Last. Race. The NASCAR Cup Series concludes its 2026 campaign at Homestead-Miami Speedway on Sunday (3 p.m. ET, NBC, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

With the season finale upon us, that means there is a championship crown in need of being awarded, too. The three remaining Chase presented by Mobil 1 pilots — Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell and Denny Hamlin — will compete at the Palm Beach banks of Homestead, where the 1.5-mile track offers plenty of tricks up the proverbial sleeve. After all, the Cup Series field at large hasn’t raced there since March 2025, and the track itself hasn’t hosted title competition since Kyle Busch took home the hardware there in 2019.

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This is to say that fans will be in for a treat. Though Larson has a 67- and 70-point lead over Bell and Hamlin, respectively, there can be no letting up, not even by the slightest of margins. Factoring in each driver’s success at Homestead, the clinching scenarios become all the more important.

With that said, let’s dive into the drivers to watch in the 2026 season finale and Racing Insights’ race projections.

DRIVERS TO WATCH 

KYLE LARSON: As the current Chase leader, the title race goes through the No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports pilot. A near-full-race lead in the points standings suggests as much, but Larson’s Homestead mastery also factors into this equation. In 12 Homestead Cup starts, Larson has six top-five results. In his last five Miami contests, he has three top-five finishes, with both of his career Cup wins also coming in that stretch (2022, 2025). His 645 laps led at the track lead all drivers, and when you couple it with finishes of seventh or better in 11 of the last 14 races on 1.5-mile tracks (with three wins), the picture is crystal clear: Larson is nails. Needing just nine points to clinch the championship, you couldn’t script a better position for Larson entering the title bout. The pathway to becoming the 11th driver to win three or more Cup championships and the 11th driver to go back-to-back in the title fight is there for the taking.

CHRISTOPHER BELL: … Not so fast, though. The No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing driver in Bell might have something to say about that. Though Larson’s career average finish at Homestead just surpasses Bell’s (12.0 vs. 12.2), the latter has actually bested the former in average start (12.2 vs. 13.4). Every position matters, after all, and given Larson’s hefty points lead, the championship stakes will matter just as much during qualifying as they do during the contest itself. Add in the fact that Bell’s Homestead numbers are also quite flashy — one win, two top fives and three top 10s in six career Miami Cup starts — and the eye test suggests that the gap between Larson and Bell at this track is closer than you think

DENNY HAMLIN: Then there is Hamlin, the No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing driver who, despite entering The Chase as the No. 1 seed, has seen little to nothing go right during the postseason stretch. Though he will need plenty of help come Sunday, there is good news: The 45-year-old Virginia native brings the most experience to the table at Homestead compared to the other two. In 21 career Miami Cup contests, Hamlin has three wins, seven top fives and 14 top 10s to go along with three pole positions, including 10 top-10 finishes in his last 13 Homestead starts. As such, it’s no surprise that his 10.2 average finish at the track easily paces Larson and Bell’s marks. With a 70-point gap separating Hamlin from Larson, a lot will need to go right to turn those fortunes around, but in a sense, that could let the No. 11 team race loose and take more risks. At this juncture, you have nothing to lose, and that mindset could bear some positive fruit. Will it be enough?

THE REST OF THE FIELD: Though the three drivers above are racing for championship hardware, that doesn’t mean the remaining Cup drivers won’t look to play spoiler. Plenty of other drivers have had Homestead success that could rival the trio above. Tyler Reddick’s 8.8 average finish in six career Cup races there leads all drivers. Since the beginning of the Next Gen era in 2022, five drivers — AJ Allmendinger (5.8), William Byron (8.5), Bubba Wallace (9.0), Alex Bowman (9.3) and Ryan Preece (10.7) — possess better average-finish marks than the three remaining Chase drivers in that same span (Bell and Hamlin, 11.3; Larson, 12.3). In other words, don’t ignore those not competing for the championship.

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FULL PROJECTED RESULTS FOR NASCAR CUP SERIES CHAMPIONSHIP RACE (3 p.m. ET, NBC)