Entering Talladega Superspeedway, seven drivers were separated by 56 points atop the NASCAR Cup Series standings. After 189 heart-stopping laps, The Chase presented by Mobil 1 was completely flipped on its head.
Kyle Larson won Sunday’s YellaWood 500, leading 23 laps and prevailing in a wild overtime shootout after falling as far as 11th on the final lap. The victory seemed unlikely for a multitude of reasons, including his previous 0-for-58 record in the draft.
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Larson led Christopher Bell by just five points before visiting the Alabama high banks, but his now 73-point advantage over Denny Hamlin puts him in a position to earn enough points to clinch the championship this weekend at Martinsville Speedway, though he would still need to start the race next weekend at Homestead-Miami Speedway in order to officially be crowned the champion.
Ahead of Sunday’s Xfinity 500 (2 p.m. ET, NBC, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio), see how Larson can secure the title in Virginia — and what his competitors need to do to extend the championship fight another week.
Top four
KYLE LARSON (leads by 73 points)
Regular-season synopsis: Earned No. 7 seed. Larson carried a lengthy winless streak from May 2025 through the opening 26 races of 2026. He finished outside the top 30 nine times, including a stretch of four in five races during the summer months. Dropping as low as 10th in points in August, Larson banked a P6 at Richmond Raceway and a top five at Loudon to elevate him three more spots to seventh to start the postseason.
How he got here: The defending champion turned up the wick once September hit, finishing sixth or better in the first six Chase races while banking wins at Gateway and Kansas to snap a 51-race winless streak. With a 2.83 average finish, Larson had the second-best six-race stretch in Cup Series postseason history. His lone Chase mishap so far came at Phoenix, where an ill-handling race car and tire failure resulted in a 34th-place finish, but he immediately bounced back with his Talladega dub to open up his championship lead.
His scenarios: Larson controls his own destiny and can clinch the championship at Martinsville by scoring 59 points, regardless of how his competitors fare. Racing Insights projects a 92.3% chance of winning the championship, with a 36.8% chance of clinching on Sunday. Although Larson has the hot hand, his 34th-place finish at Phoenix demonstrated how quickly a commanding points advantage can shrink.
DENNY HAMLIN (trails by 73 points)
Regular-season synopsis: Earned No. 1 seed. Hamlin trailed Tyler Reddick for the series lead by 129 points after the 12th race of the season at Watkins Glen International — but not due to a lack of performance. Over the summer months, Reddick cooled down, which coincided with a three-race win streak for the No. 11 driver. Hamlin passed his 23XI Racing driver for the top spot in June at Sonoma Raceway and finished the regular season with six top-seven finishes in the final eight races to secure a 25-point head start for the postseason.
How he got here: Hamlin has suffered some type of issue in nearly every Chase race, posting just two top fives. Notably, a slow pit stop in the opener at Darlington Raceway relegated him to midpack, where contact with Michael McDowell ultimately resulted in an 18th-place finish. A Stage 1 spin led to a 16th-place finish at Las Vegas Motor Speedway — a track where he had won the previous two races — and a flat tire at Phoenix mired him a lap down and in 28th.
His scenarios: Racing Insights currently projects the Joe Gibbs Racing driver with a 4.1% chance of winning the championship. He needs to outscore Larson by 74 points over the final two races, a feat he’s accomplished five times since 2017 with points adjusted to the modern format. Hamlin needs to leave Martinsville within 22 points of Larson to control his own destiny at Homestead, a 3.2% chance of happening. But if Larson outscores Hamlin by three or more points on Sunday, Hamlin would be eliminated. If Hamlin wins both Martinsville and Homestead, his championship odds increase to 60%.
CHRISTOPHER BELL (trails by 74 points)
Regular-season synopsis: Earned No. 6 seed. Bell had six finishes of 17th or worse in a seven-race stretch, spanning from Darlington Raceway in March to Watkins Glen in May — dropping as low as 12th in points. He warmed up with the temperatures, though, finishing second a record seven times without a win during the regular season, including a stretch of four in five races. That heater came just weeks after suffering a fractured wrist in a violent crash at Michigan.
How he got here: The No. 20 driver opened The Chase with a crown-jewel victory in the Southern 500 and finished sixth or better in five of the first eight races. Bell suffered damage in a crash at Gateway and finished 19th, then battled power steering woes to finish 23rd at Las Vegas. His biggest setback came at Talladega, where he crashed by himself during green-flag pit stops and finished 35th.
His scenarios: Racing Insights currently projects Bell with a 2% chance of winning the championship. To remain eligible for the title entering Homestead, Larson cannot outscore him by two or more points; otherwise, Bell would be eliminated. With victories in the last two races, Bell’s championship odds increase to 49.4%.
CHASE BRISCOE (trails by 79 points)
Regular-season synopsis: Earned No. 5 seed. Briscoe finished 36th or worse in three of the first four races, placing him 32nd in points and with a large hole to dig out of early on. A seven-race stretch over the summer where he finished sixth or better six times elevated him to fifth in points after a runner-up finish at Richmond Raceway in August. His lone regular-season victory came during that stretch at Chicagoland Speedway, winning the track’s first race since 2019 and banking 70 points.
How he got here: The No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing driver started the postseason with a sixth-place finish at Darlington, but things went south rather quickly. He was taken out at Gateway, an innocent bystander to Chase Elliott’s brake rotor failure in Turn 1, before late, self-inflicted wall contact at Bristol put him behind the wall six laps early. Briscoe ripped off back-to-back wins at Las Vegas and Charlotte Motor Speedway before finishing eighth at Phoenix, climbing from minus 123 to just minus 24 in three races until a DNF at Talladega resulted in a major setback.
His scenarios: Racing Insights currently projects Briscoe with a 1.3% chance of winning the championship. To remain eligible for the title entering Homestead, Briscoe needs to outscore Larson by three or more points at Martinsville; otherwise, he would be eliminated. With victories in the last two races, Briscoe’s championship odds increase to 49.8%.
Next three
Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney and Tyler Reddick all remain mathematically eligible, but face Herculean deficits to overcome in the final two races. Logano trails by 100, Blaney by 107 and Reddick by 126. Racing Insights projects all three drivers’ championship odds at 0.1%.
For Logano to stay eligible: He needs to outscore Larson by 25 or more points at Martinsville. If he wins the final two races, his championship odds increase to 23%.
For Blaney to stay eligible: He needs to outscore Larson by 32 or more points at Martinsville. If he wins the final two races, his championship odds increase to 9.1%.
For Reddick to stay eligible: He needs to outscore Larson by 51 or more points at Martinsville. If he wins the final two races, his championship odds increase to 2.7%.
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Eliminated
The following drivers are no longer mathematically eligible to win the championship: Austin Cindric, Ty Gibbs, Carson Hocevar, William Byron, Chase Elliott, Bubba Wallace, Daniel Suárez, Ryan Preece and Chris Buescher.