Results projections for Phoenix

The desert’s diamond awaits the NASCAR Cup Series as Phoenix Raceway plays host to The Chase presented by Mobil 1 on Sunday (3 p.m. ET, USA Network, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). The semiannual stop ushers in a new chapter for the 1-mile oval: for the first time since 2019, it is not the season finale.

But that’s not to say the stakes aren’t high. Just four races separate a driver from the title, and after three consecutive intermediates, the Cup Series pivots to a flatter, shorter track. The always unpredictable Talladega Superspeedway follows, with Martinsville Speedway then setting the stage for the highly anticipated return to Homestead-Miami Speedway to crown a champion.

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Kyle Larson heads to Phoenix with a 49-point advantage over Denny Hamlin, who’s looking to avenge his Championship 4 defeat a year ago and finally score a Chase victory. Christopher Bell (minus 51) and Chase Briscoe (minus 65) both have plenty of momentum on their side, and Team Penske mates Ryan Blaney (minus 85) and Joey Logano (minus 92) look to make a splash as the schedule shifts in the organization’s favor.

Read on to see drivers worth monitoring over 312 laps in Arizona, as well as Racing Insights’ full projected results for the Freeway Insurance 500.

DRIVERS TO WATCH

RYAN BLANEY: Look no further than Blaney, the current king of the desert. The 32-year-old has won the last two Phoenix races, including holding off Christopher Bell on a restart with 12 laps to go for a springtime romp. He’s finished inside the top five in eight of nine Next Gen races at Phoenix, with the only exception an engine expiration in spring 2025. Blaney earned top fives in each of the last three races, and adding another at Phoenix would tie the longest streak of his career. A big points day is quite possible for the No. 12: he’s the only driver to earn points in all 12 stages in The Chase, and his fifth-best pit crew should keep him up front all afternoon. Saturday went perfectly according to plan, turning the fastest time in practice and earning the Busch Light Pole Award. With a victory, Blaney would become the first Penske driver to win three consecutive races at a track since Rusty Wallace at Martinsville (1994-95).

CHRISTOPHER BELL: If Blaney’s the bar, then Bell isn’t far below it. The No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing driver has finished inside the top five in four of the last five Phoenix races, including wins in the 2024 and 2025 spring races. He dominated again this spring, leading 176 laps before finishing second — the first of what’s now eight runner-up results in 2026 after another one last weekend at Charlotte Motor Speedway. In total, he’s led 474 circuits — the most in the series — since the start of 2022. Through six Chase races, Bell has earned the most stage points (79) and the second most points overall (266), only trailing Larson. Ford might be the headliner, but this Toyota driver could very well earn his second win of the postseason.

KYLE LARSON: The two-time and defending Cup Series champion had his worst race of The Chase at Charlotte … sixth. He still earned 49 points on the afternoon, extending his lead by seven more markers over Hamlin. Larson remains on pace for one of the strongest postseasons in history, as his 2.8 average finish over six races is the best start to a Chase in NASCAR history. And while the notion is that Hendrick Motorsports struggles at flat tracks, Larson bucks that trend. He won at World Wide Technology Raceway last month, and his Phoenix numbers are stellar. The No. 5 driver finished third in each of the last three desert races and owns a 4.9 average over his last seven at the track. A win on Sunday could make Larson’s series lead nearly insurmountable — but with a 22nd-place starting spot, he’ll have his work cut out for him.

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FULL PROJECTED RESULTS FOR FREEWAY INSURANCE 500 (3 p.m. ET, USA)