Just about every season of Denny Hamlin‘s 22-year Cup Series career, the question has always been: Is this finally the year when everything comes together, and the 11 car drives its way to the championship?
Every previous season, the answer has always ultimately been, “No.” Some years have looked more promising than others, of course, and some of Denny‘s failed brushes with a breakthrough have bordered on the absurdly cruel — see last year‘s title race as Exhibit A. But for all the different ways he‘s come close, the ending has always managed to leave Hamlin as history‘s greatest driver without a championship.
That was supposed to change in 2026. Going into The Chase presented by Mobil 1, everything seemed lined up for Hamlin to cast off the weight of history and claim the same crown that all of his legendary peers on the career wins list already have. Not only was Hamlin enjoying another of his best seasons — in total defiance of Father Time, at age 45 — while he ran down employee/rival Tyler Reddick for the regular-season title (and top seed in The Chase), but the stretch-run schedule was looking absolutely perfect for his strengths: Many more intermediates and short tracks than the typical mix, and fewer road courses and drafting tracks.
Truly, the only thing standing in the way of Denny‘s first career title appeared to be his own ability to execute. And that, unfortunately, has been a big part of the problem.
As we now sit halfway through the 10-race Chase, Hamlin‘s 25-point lead on the field to begin the championship push was whittled away completely within just three races — through Bristol — and after Sunday‘s 16th-place finish at Las Vegas, he is now staring at a 40-point deficit in the standings to a suddenly dominant Kyle Larson.
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Certainly, Larson has driven at an impressive rate since The Chase began. His average Driver Rating in the past five races is 117.7 — the ninth-best start by a Chase/playoff driver through five races since 2005 — and his average finish of 2.2 is the best of any such driver in that sample, beating out Joey Logano‘s average of 2.8 in the first five races of the 2014 Chase. When the competition is on a heater like that, your margin for error will suddenly get a lot smaller.
But Hamlin has also failed to take advantage of opportunities that were presented to him. At the start of The Chase at Darlington — one of his better career tracks, where he‘s won five times and is the only active Cup driver with an average finish in single-digits — Hamlin stumbled to an 18th-place finish at the Southern 500 after taking damage at mid-race. We wrote at the time that this didn‘t have to prove fatal to Hamlin‘s title hopes if he rebounded to meet expectations over the rest of The Chase, particularly in the critical stretch of three straight 1.5-mile ovals — the likes of which Hamlin had dominated all season.
But Hamlin has continued to undershoot his performance predictions throughout The Chase so far. In four of five outings, he has produced a Driver Rating below what his recent history and similar track-type affinity suggested ahead of the race, while Larson has exceeded his own predictions in four of five races. And the only time Denny didn‘t underperform, at Kansas, Larson literally rattled off a perfect 150.0 rating en route to victory, causing Hamlin‘s deficit to grow from one point to 26.
Even on Sunday, Larson began the South Point 400 with major struggles, running well outside the top 20 as the end of Stage 1 approached. This would have been a prime opportunity for polesitter Hamlin to capitalize on one of his trademark 1.5-mile tracks and eat into Larson‘s edge in the points … except that the 11 car lost the back-end in Turn 3 with nobody else around and just over a lap to go in the stage, damaging his splitter and destroying his favorable track position.
A persistent and adaptable Larson, meanwhile, ended up rallying to vie with eventual winner Chase Briscoe late before finishing second, and Hamlin was never as fast again, finishing 16th. Yet another unsatisfying run caused Hamlin‘s championship odds to dwindle even further, to just under 17% in my latest forecast model projection. It‘s the fifth consecutive week in which Hamlin‘s odds either took a dip or stayed roughly level at best:
All of which brings us to this weekend in Charlotte. It‘s the back-leg of those three straight 1.5-mile races, and it represents the second-to-last intermediate on the calendar, ahead of only the season finale at Homestead-Miami on Nov. 8. Not coincidentally, those two tracks also happen to be his highest-rated remaining tracks in the projections, and you can easily make the case that Charlotte is more important to his title chances because it represents such a fork in the road from here, a point at which he still has some chance — however slim at the moment — to win the title.
If Denny wins this week, his title odds would leap by 23.5 percentage points to 40.3% — placing him squarely back in the fight with Larson. But if he finishes outside the top five, Hamlin‘s odds would slide further into the abyss. And if Larson wins again? Then the No. 5 team would have an overwhelming 90% chance at locking down the championship. (It could easily happen, too: Larson owns the second-highest projection this week behind Briscoe, and he won here en route to the title in 2021, albeit in the spring.)
That‘s just how much of a do-or-die week it is for Hamlin. Yes, four races will remain after Charlotte, including several that do still suit his strengths. But this might be his last chance to keep Larson‘s points lead anywhere near manageable territory. Another missed opportunity here, especially if Larson keeps finishing at the front, and what once looked like the year for Denny‘s drought to finally end will quickly become just another heartbreaking chapter in his career.