What to Watch: Loudon magic

Track: New Hampshire Motor Speedway
Location: Loudon, New Hampshire
Track length: 1.058 miles
When: 2 p.m. ET
Where to tune in: USA Network, HBO Max, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio
Race purse: $11,233,037
Race distance: 301 laps | 318.46 miles
Stages: 70 | 185 | 301
Saturday’s starting lineup | Pit stall assignments

Loudon offers one last clean shot at control before Daytona chaos

LOUDON, N.H. — For the slew of drivers still sweating their way toward The Chase’s impending and imminent return, New Hampshire Motor Speedway represents something increasingly scarce on the calendar.

Control.

A mere two NASCAR Cup Series races remain before the 16-driver Chase field is finalized, and each could hardly offer a different way of getting there. Daytona International Speedway lies in wait next weekend with the regular-season cutoff looming and all the drafting volatility, multicar pileups and split-second, coin-flip (and often costly) decisions that tend to come with it.

But first comes Loudon.

Sunday’s Dollar Tree 301 (2 p.m. ET, USA Network, HBO Max, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) offers 301 laps around the “Magic Mile,” and for anyone still hovering around the elimination line, perhaps one final chance to dictate their own terms before Daytona starts making some of those decisions for them.

That should up the urgency considerably.

MORE: Weekend schedule | At-track photos

Shane van Gisbergen currently occupies the 16th and final Chase position, 50 points above Ryan Preece. Behind Preece sit Ross Chastain (minus-63), Brad Keselowski (minus-78), Erik Jones (minus-81) and Michael McDowell (minus-104), leaving a group of drivers with little room for a quiet afternoon on Sunday.

The math isn’t technically in full-on desperation mode for everyone listed there, but the calendar sure is.

“I felt like we took a step in the right direction after Iowa for Richmond, and then I feel like we’re going to take another step when we come here today,” Preece said Saturday morning at New Hampshire before qualifying 18th. “So there’s a lot of things I’m looking forward to, and you know, today I was just in the trailer, and Derek (Finley, crew chief) said, ‘Like, we need a home run right now.’ So that’s the plan.”

Batter up.

The flat 1.058-mile oval is hardly predictable, but its recent races have generally rewarded drivers who establish themselves early and stay there. Five of the last six New Hampshire winners started inside the top five, and the Stage 1 winner has gone on to win each of the last three races. Only one of the last 14 events has required overtime, so late-race chaos doesn’t tend to snatch trophies (or even just a clean top-five, which would still go a long way right now) away from a worthy winner.

In other words, there is typically more opportunity here to build an afternoon than simply survive one.

Come Daytona, however, all bets are off, so take your swing now, drivers.

That distinction should matter to drivers such as Preece, Chastain, Keselowski and Jones, each of whom left Richmond farther from the elimination line than when the weekend began, despite entering it with a degree of optimism. No driver below the Chase cut gained ground on the cutoff there, while the gap between van Gisbergen and Preece only grew.

We’re well past the point where merely limiting the damage is enough, though, and Sunday’s race also carries another wrinkle this weekend that could matter well beyond Sunday evening. When the Cup Series returns to Loudon in 2027, Loudon returns to The Chase.

That gives teams an unusual opportunity this weekend: race for everything immediately in front of them now … while also collecting notebook data that could become substantially more valuable a year from now.

Before we look ahead to next year, however, for a handful of teams, there is already plenty worth remembering from last year. Team Penske, for one, essentially owned the place. Joey Logano started from the pole and led 147 laps, while Ryan Blaney led another 116, won Stage 1 and ultimately took the checkered flag, with Logano finishing fourth.

That performance looks considerably more relevant now than it might have a month ago, as everything appears to be clicking into place for Penske at the exact right moment.

Blaney has displayed elite pace all year — third in season-long speed, according to NASCAR Insights — but Penske has now won three of the last four Cup races all of a sudden after visiting Victory Lane just once through the season’s first 19 events, and its three drivers combined to lead 807 laps over the last five races after totaling 480 in the first 19. Logano arrives at his home track fresh off a Richmond victory, his second win in four races, while Blaney sits second in points and returns as the defending New Hampshire winner.

Even Austin Cindric, whose Loudon history is considerably quieter, enters with some momentum after a season-best third-place finish at Richmond moved him to 15th in The Chase standings, 57 points above the elimination line. The Nos. 2 and 22 each turned in top-five times in practice, with Blaney’s No. 12 topping the board in 30-lap averages.

The timing could hardly be better for Penske to arrive at one of its best recent tracks.

“I think Team Penske’s done a good job all year of just kind of staying in the game, and on my group side I feel like we’ve gotten better at some places where we’ve really needed to improve and close the gap a little bit to the Toyotas that were really strong,” Blaney said Saturday morning at NHMS. “So yeah, I think we’re in a good spot at Team Penske and kind of hitting some really good momentum right before we get going in The Chase, so hopefully we can continue that.”

MORE: Goodyear tire notes: Loudon

But Joe Gibbs Racing has plenty of reasons to like the place, too.

Christopher Bell has won two of the last four New Hampshire races and has finished sixth or better in four of his six Cup starts here. Yet he lands in Loudon looking for lobster with one of the stranger stat lines of the season: 10 top fives, seven runner-up finishes and still no victory in 2026.

The “Magic Mile” would be a fitting place to finally change his bridesmaid status.

“We know that this is a huge opportunity for us, and then Daytona, you know, is going to be a completely unknown,” Bell said Saturday morning at New Hampshire. “So yeah, I think this one is kind of in our hands, to where we can control our own destiny, and then Daytona, we’re just going to go out there and basically go to Vegas and gamble and see what happens.”

Then there’s teammate Denny Hamlin, who enters as both the series points leader and perhaps the most consistently dangerous driver on traditional ovals anywhere in the garage. (More on that in the chart below because it’s wild.) His three New Hampshire victories are the most among active drivers, and his 9.94 average finish here ranks second all time among drivers with multiple starts.

For much of the field, Sunday is about firming up Chase positioning. For Hamlin, it is increasingly about sustaining a season that has given everyone else very little breathing room after Reddick’s proverbial foot slipped off the gas in the second half of the regular season.

The list of legitimate New Hampshire threats runs even deeper.

MORE: Watch NASCAR video highlights

Josh Berry, while eliminated from Chase contention, has finished in the top three in both of his Cup starts here, including runner-up to his alliance compatriot in Blaney last season, giving him an absurd 2.5 average finish at the track. He also enters with three consecutive top 10s, the best three-race stretch of his Cup career. For a driver also looking to showcase himself for 2027 and beyond, this could be dangerous, and he could play spoiler.

Kyle Larson has never won at Loudon, but owns three runner-up finishes, six top fives and nine top 10s in 15 starts. Chase Briscoe has finished in the top 10 in each of the last three New Hampshire races and comes in with six top-six finishes across the last seven events overall as he remains on the search for win No. 1 of 2026.

And Hendrick Motorsports arrives having finally put all four cars in the top 10 at Richmond, its first such performance since April 2025, providing one more subplot for a team still trying to determine whether its late-summer pulse is becoming something more substantial.

There is plenty at stake everywhere you look.

For The Chase bubble, New Hampshire is the last clean opportunity to move the line before Daytona scrambles the board. For Penske, it is a chance to carry a suddenly torrid stretch back to the site of last year’s domination. For Hamlin, Bell and a deep group of proven Loudon performers, it is another opportunity at a track that has historically rewarded championship-caliber drivers — 13 of the last 17 New Hampshire winners eventually or previously won a Cup title.

And for every organization thinking beyond Sunday, this weekend doubles as an early look at the track that will play a crucial role in NASCAR’s postseason a little over a year from now.

The Chase is not locked in after Loudon. But with Daytona waiting on the other side, Sunday might be the last true chance for a driver to control his own championship destiny.

Better not whiff.

In the details …

Denny Hamlin has been nearly impossible to knock out of contention on NASCAR’s non-drafting ovals this season. The No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota driver has finished inside the top five in an astounding 11 consecutive races on the track type — a run that includes three straight wins at Nashville Superspeedway, Michigan International Speedway and Pocono Raceway — and now heads to New Hampshire as the points leader at a place where his three victories are the most among active drivers.

With the help of Racing Insights, take a look at Hamlin’s 11-race top-five streak on non-drafting ovals, the longest such run since Kevin Harvick posted 12 straight in 2020:

Speed reads

Race-day essentials:

• Loudon hub: Key information, pit stalls, additional results | Read more
• Sunday Setup: See what crew chiefs have in mind in the Granite State | Read more
• Analysis: Why Loudon is the perfect pre-Chase heat check for Hendrick | Read more
• Paint Scheme Preview: Fresh looks ready to tackle the “Magic Mile” | View gallery
• Neil Paine: Did Joey Logano just go from Chase bubble to title contender (again)? | Read more
• NASCAR Classics: Dig into the video vault for full-race replays from New Hampshire | Watch now
• Power Rankings: Preece turns to Loudon home turf with Chase hopes on the line | This week’s ranks