Racing Insights: Projected Iowa finish

For the third time, the NASCAR Cup Series visits the Hawkeye State for Sunday’s race at Iowa Speedway (3:30 p.m. ET, USA Network, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). The 0.875-mile short track is prone to raising tempers with close-quarters racing — all while postseason pressure continues to heighten.

Just four races remain until the 16-driver field for The Chase is set, and Iowa kicks off three consecutive stops at tracks measuring a mile or so in length or shorter. Richmond lies on the schedule next Saturday night, followed by an annual stop in New England at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. The common denominator among all three? Team Penske thrives at each.

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This four-race stretch will determine who earns the No. 1 overall seed for The Chase, with Denny Hamlin currently holding an 84-point advantage over Tyler Reddick. Could this be where the No. 45 23XI Racing team turns its summer slide around, or could the ever-lurking Ryan Blaney (minus-120) close in on both of them? Further down, could the RFK Racing duo of Ryan Preece and Brad Keselowski, along with Legacy Motor Club’s Erik Jones, make a last-ditch push for a final postseason position?

Iowa serves as a key turning point for the 2026 season. Read on to see drivers worth keeping an eye on, as well as Racing Insights’ full projections for Sunday’s corn-country showdown.

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DRIVERS TO WATCH

RYAN BLANEY: The 2023 Cup Series champion is the gold standard on short tracks right now and has arguably been the best in two Iowa visits. He won the inaugural Cup Series race in Newton two years ago before backing it up with a fourth-place effort last summer, posting a 3.9 average running position across the two races. Blaney has finished no worse than 11th in the last 14 short-track races and rides incredible momentum to the Midwest with an EchoPark Speedway victory in July and eight top 10s in the last 10 events. Better yet, he starts from the pole position on Sunday, so if anyone’s the bar here, it’s certainly Blaney — and he can use that as leverage to leap up the standings.

BRAD KESELOWSKI: After going 11 consecutive races without a top 10, the No. 6 RFK Racing driver finally seems headed in the right direction after top-seven showings at North Wilkesboro and Indianapolis. Keselowski has earned top 10s in both previous trips to Iowa — one of five drivers with that accomplishment — as well as four top 10s in the last seven short-track races. Sitting 50 points below The Chase cutline, the 2012 titleholder is in massive need of a strong points day — and Sunday could very well make or break his postseason hopes. A crash during Saturday’s qualifying may not bode especially well, but Keselowski has proven poise at the Heartland oval.

CARSON HOCEVAR: Hurricanes aren’t known to make landfall in Iowa, but Hocevar is certainly an exception. Now up to fifth in points after an Indianapolis top 10, the Cup Series is seemingly the No. 77 Spire Motorsports team’s oyster as the 23-year-old continues his meteoric rise to stardom. His Iowa record is solid, averaging an 11th-place finish with an eighth-place result last year. At short tracks this season, he has the fifth-best average running position (9.43) and the eighth-most points scored (93). Finishing the regular season inside the top six is crucial for Hocevar’s championship hopes, and he now enters the most pressure-packed portion of his budding Cup career.

MORE: At-track photos | What to Watch: Iowa

FULL PROJECTED RESULTS FOR IOWA CORN 350 POWERED BY ETHANOL (3:30 p.m. ET, USA Network)