NASCAR.com’s Pat DeCola ranks the top 20 Cup Series drivers competing for the 2026 championship after Corey Heim’s win at Naval Base Coronado and before Sunday’s Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway (3:30 p.m. ET, TNT Sports, HBO Max, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).
Analysis: Four in a row coming at a fresh street course probably wasn’t ever much of a realistic probability for Hamlin, but the middling result still wasn‘t enough to knock him from the top spot. No. 11 started 26th at San Diego, finished 14th, gained ground on Tyler Reddick anyway and now sits just eight points out of the regular-season lead after spending the past month turning what looked like a blowout into a real fight. Sonoma is not exactly his personal playground either, with no wins and a 20.1 average finish in 19 starts, but Hamlin does have four top fives, seven top 10s, a pole and 135 laps led there. He doesn‘t need to win this weekend to stay No. 1, but if he runs well at one of his trickier tracks, the “sport is running through him” viewpoint only gets harder to dispute.
Analysis: Reddick‘s San Diego day somehow managed to be impressive, painful and a little alarming all at once. After starting at the rear because of unapproved adjustments, No. 45 surged into position to potentially steal the inaugural street-course race, leading nine laps late and looking like he might deliver a counterpunch to Hamlin’s recent run before a flat left front in the closing laps knocked him to 25th. He still owns the points lead, for now, but that margin is down to eight markers, and the cushion that once felt untouchable is super gone. Sonoma could be the right place to stop the squeeze, though, with the excellent road-course racer Reddick owning a 5.4 average start, two top 10s and 35 laps led in five races there. | MORE: Reddick dejected after Coronado loss: ‘Today‘s result‘s on me‘
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Analysis: Blaney quietly had one of the most productive San Diego weekends, winning Stage 1, leading 12 laps, finishing ninth and gaining 33 points on the cutline to push his already-safe Chase position even further into “don‘t worry about it” territory. The larger question remains whether No. 12 can become more than the best of the non-Hamlin/Reddick group, but the gap between third and the field behind him is real. Sonoma has been decent enough, with five top 10s in nine starts, though only one top five and a 17.7 average finish suggest it has not quite been a competitive track for him. Still, Blaney keeps stacking quality weeks, and that has value even when it isn‘t headline-catching.
Analysis: Larson still doesn‘t have a 2026 win, which still makes next to no sense, but the No. 5 has become tremendously relevant again in recent weeks. He finished third at San Diego, led 11 laps and was part of the late-race battle for the win before the 23XI contingent stole the spotlight around him. That still gives Larson four top fives in his last five races and 608 laps led on the season — obviously not the resume of a team far away from Victory Lane. Sonoma might be the most obvious place on the schedule for the breakthrough to finally land. Larson has two Cup wins there, four poles, 116 laps led and a ridiculous 4.5 average start in 11 appearances. It would be very on brand for the Californian’s first win of the year to show up in Wine Country.
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Analysis: Buescher‘s jump into the top five feels earned after a long, consistent grind to get there. He finished sixth at San Diego, led seven laps, scored points in both stages and continues to be one of the cleanest week-to-week operators in the series, now sitting seventh in points and 138 above the cutline, albeit without a win. His methodical, quiet kind of season can get a bit overlooked until you realize how few bad weeks the No. 17 actually has. Sonoma gives him a real chance to keep pressing, too. Buescher has three top fives in nine starts there, a 13.1 average finish and has completed every lap he has attempted at the track. He could make a massive statement this weekend with a win.
Analysis: Elliott drops a spot despite a solid San Diego recovery, which says more about Buescher‘s rise than anything negative about the No. 9. After starting 30th, Elliott dealt with a pit-road penalty, spun later in the race and still came home 12th, which is not the kind of day that moves the needle but does keep the floor intact. Sonoma is where the expectations should rise again, however. Elliott somehow still has not won there, but he owns five top fives, seven top 10s and a 10.2 average finish in nine starts for one of the stronger active profiles in the field. If the road-course reputation is going to reassert itself, this is the right place for it.
Analysis: Gibbs slipped behind Elliott and Buescher after San Diego, but the larger shape of his season remains strong. He finished 15th after getting caught in the Lap 32 pileup, still banked Stage 1 points and remains fifth in the standings, just one point behind Kyle Larson and one ahead of Elliott. There is nothing fragile or flukey about that, now halfway through 2026. Sonoma is the more complicated part of the equation, though, because Gibbs has qualified well there with a 7.3 average start but has only one top 10 and a 20.7 average finish in three Cup tries.
Analysis: No. 77 had the kind of San Diego race that basically sums up the whole “Carson Hocevar” experience right now. He started on the front row, showed speed, led four laps, put himself in position to win late and then watched it turn into 19th after going wide on the restart and getting spun in the chicane during the late scramble after probably irking half the field in the process. The talent is obvious, but the chaos tax remains real. Sonoma is not an easy place to clean that up, either, with Hocevar carrying a 24.5 average finish through two Cup starts there despite obvious road-course skill. Still, he is ninth in points, 114 above the cutline and very much ahead of schedule. The speed matters, but so does the fact that he keeps putting himself in volatile situations.
Analysis: Suárez came out of San Diego with another useful day, finishing 13th, scoring Stage 2 points and keeping himself eighth in the standings with a 116-point cushion over the cutline. It wasn‘t flashy, but the veteran Suárez has become much better at collecting what he can when the weekend does not fully come to him, and that matters with the Chase picture tightening behind him. Sonoma, of course, is where everything changed for Suárez in 2022 with his first Cup win, though it remains his lone top 10 there. His overall track profile there is solid, though, with an average finish of 13.9. No. 7 has already found one trophy this year, and Sonoma is absolutely a place where another would not feel out of nowhere.
Analysis: Wallace made the biggest statement of anyone in these rankings at San Diego, and it was much needed. A lost right front and two-lap hold early could have buried the day completely, but the No. 23 team somehow turned it into a runner-up finish, with Wallace passing Larson for second after Reddick‘s tire issue and helping put 23XI all over the front of the field late. That is not a normal recovery — it honestly may be a potential season-shaping salvage job. Sonoma is where some skepticism has to enter, though. Wallace has never scored a top 10 there and owns a 24.0 average finish in seven starts. The momentum is real, but this weekend is still a prove-it spot if he wants this jump to stick. | MORE: Wallace left with mixed emotions after runner-up day
Analysis: Briscoe‘s San Diego result was run-of-the-mill compared to some of his recent work, but 17th is not a disaster given how weird that race got. The No. 19 remains 10th in the Chase standings, 69 points above the cutline, which is enough to keep the larger trend pointing in a good direction. Sonoma could be a sneaky important test, however. Briscoe has one top five in five Cup starts there and won an ARCA Menards Series West race at the track in 2021, so the front of the field there is not foreign to him. A good run would keep him in the championship picture, but a bad one could start to fray his hold on a Chase spot a bit as we begin to wind down the regular season.
Analysis: Byron‘s season continues to be one long argument between the reputation of the No. 24 and the results currently attached to it. San Diego was another rough one, with Byron finishing 32nd after starting near the back, though he did at least score Stage 1 points before the day unraveled. That leaves him 13th in points, only 59 above the cutline and far from the championship-standard lane he’s occupied the past few seasons. Sonoma has not been especially kind, either, with no top fives, two top 10s and a 20.0 average finish in seven starts despite a strong 9.7 average start and strong road-course chops overall. The speed shows up often enough these days — right now, the issue is everything after that.
Analysis: Bell‘s drop is less about ability than the fact that the season keeps kicking him in the teeth. San Diego barely got started before the No. 20 suffered an engine issue and finished last (after he swapped out with relief driver Brent Crews), continuing a brutal run after the broken-wrist drama and near-miss fuel gamble at Pocono. The speed has been there too often to write him off, but there are only so many “yeah, but” weeks a driver can absorb before the standings start to tell a harsher story. Sonoma at least gives him a reasonable place to respond, with one top five, three top 10s and a 14.8 average finish in five starts. Still, Bell does not need another respectable road-course day. He needs a clean one, and it’s tough to see that happening right now.
Analysis: San Diego was supposed to be SVG‘s show, and instead it became his first real reminder that even the best get bitten. He started from the pole, led the opening laps and was exactly where everyone expected him to be early before contact and the Lap 32 crash ended his day in 38th. That result knocked him below the cutline, which is a pretty jarring sentence given the track type and expectations coming into last weekend. Sonoma, however, is the best possible place to immediately make everyone forget it. Van Gisbergen won there last year from the pole, led 97 laps and owns a perfect one-for-one Cup record at the track. If he is still 14th (or lower) in these rankings by this time next week, something has gone very wrong.
Analysis: Jones did not get the big San Diego result that backed up his Michigan-Pocono surge, but 20th was enough to keep him inside the provisional Chase field and still 10 points above the cutline. The Legacy Motor Club bump is still real, even if San Diego cooled it a bit, and Jones remains one of the more interesting bubble stories after looking like an afterthought not that long ago. Sonoma has been middling but survivable, with two top 10s and a 19.1 average finish in eight starts. That might not sound like much, but for Jones right now, a survivable Sonoma is probably just fine.
Analysis: Welcome back to the rankings, Ryan Preece, and pretty emphatically. Preece finished 11th at San Diego, won Stage 2, finished second in Stage 1, led five laps and gained 38 points on the cutline, vaulting back to just five points inside the provisional Chase field after a rough few weeks. That is exactly how a bubble driver flips the conversation in one afternoon. Sonoma is not a slam dunk for him in Cup, with no top 10s and an 18.6 average finish in five starts, but Preece did win there in ARCA Menards Series West competition in 2023 in a dominant run from the pole. Maybe that matters, maybe it doesn‘t. What definitely does is that the No. 60 suddenly has life again.
Analysis: Cindric falls a spot despite gaining a little ground on the cutline, which pretty much captures how precarious this all feels. He finished 22nd at San Diego, remains inside the Chase grid by eight points and continues to hang around because the bubble has not exactly been a model of stability. Sonoma should theoretically suit him better than some of the tracks coming up, but the Cup results there have been mixed: one top five, one top 10 and a 20.5 average finish in four starts. Cindric‘s road-racing background still gives him a case, but the No. 2 team needs more than theoretical comfort right now.
Analysis: Allmendinger did exactly what he needed to do at San Diego to keep himself relevant, finishing fifth and gaining 33 points on the cutline. He is still 21 points out, but that is a very different kind of hole than the one he had before the series hit this road-course stretch, and Sonoma is another chance to keep chopping. Oddly enough, Allmendinger has never finished top five there in Cup, but he does have four top 10s, a pole and 68 laps led in 14 starts. The Kaulig veteran probably needs a win at some point to fully change his season, but another big road-course day could at least keep the door propped open.
Analysis: Logano slides another spot, which feels strange after he finished 18th and gained 11 points on the cutline, but that is where the season is right now for the No. 22. He is still 10 points below the bubble, still winless and still searching for the kind of complete weekend that makes this feel less like a slow-motion fight just to survive. Sonoma does offer some reason for belief, as Logano has four top fives, seven top 10s, two poles and a 13.2 average finish there in 16 starts, for one of the better profiles among drivers in this range. If the Penske rebound is coming, Wine Country could be a logical place to start pouring, but something needs to happen here, and quickly.
Analysis: Keselowski is hanging onto the final spot here by a thread, and the thread is getting thinner. San Diego ended 34th after a flat left front, dropping him 13 points below the cutline and continuing a stretch where the No. 6 team looks less like a sleeping contender and more like a group unsuccessfully trying to stop the bleeding. Sonoma is not a bad track for him statistically — one top five, three top 10s and a 15.5 average finish in 15 starts — but the urgency has tantamount. This is no longer about waiting for the veteran program to come around — it needs to come around now, or the Chase picture may start moving on without him.