NASCAR.com’s Pat DeCola ranks the top 20 Cup Series drivers competing for the 2026 championship after Shane van Gisbergen’s win at Watkins Glen International and before Sunday’s NASCAR All-Star Race at Dover Motor Speedway (1 p.m. ET, FS1, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). Christopher Bell enters as the defending winner.
Analysis: Reddick hung out exactly where a far-and-away points leader should at Watkins Glen — near the front all day without forcing the issue against Shane van Gisbergen‘s dominance and slipping up in the process. Reddick climbed from 15th to fifth, collected Stage 2 points with a runner-up finish in the segment and left the weekend still holding a massive 129-point championship advantage. Now comes Dover, a place where Reddick‘s resume quietly says he‘ll be a contender to fittingly win his first All-Star Race amid his superstar season. He owns two top 10s in seven starts at the Monster Mile with a reasonable 14.1 average finish there, but he’s essentially been a top-10 car in each Delaware trip with 23XI.
Analysis: Hamlin‘s Watkins Glen day never fully materialized after rolling off 20th and spending most of the race mired in traffic before settling for 16th, but the day didn’t hurt him, either. Looking ahead to this weekend, few drivers are more proven at Dover than Hamlin. The Joe Gibbs Racing veteran owns three Cup wins there — including last year‘s race — plus 17 top 10s and 885 laps led in 35 starts. Dover has historically been one of the tracks where Hamlin can assert control quickly, and after a relatively muted Glen run, this weekend sets up as a prime rebound opportunity for one of the sport‘s biggest stars.
Analysis: Elliott‘s Watkins Glen result was far uglier than the overall pace his No. 9 team has shown this year, and can almost be disregarded after starting 27th, never truly finding clean track position and crossing the line 24th after spending most of the afternoon fighting strategy and traffic instead of contending near the front. Dover, however, has long been one of Elliott‘s best tracks, and another All-Star win is within his scope. The Hendrick Motorsports driver owns two wins, 10 top fives and 11 top 10s in 15 starts there, paired with a ridiculous 9.3 average finish. He won at the “Monster Mile” as recently as 2022, and this feels like exactly the type of track where the No. 9 bunch can immediately erase the sting of a frustrating road-course weekend.
Analysis: Blaney quietly pieced together another unheralded but strong afternoon at Watkins Glen, with the No. 12 Ford earning Stage 1 points, staying clean throughout the race and finishing 11th despite never quite having the raw speed to challenge the leaders. Blaney‘s Dover numbers are better than many realize, too. In 15 starts, he has just five top 10s, but an overall 16.8 average finish is a misnomer — he hasn’t finished worse than eighth there since 2022.
Analysis: In a way, Gibbs may have had the strongest Watkins Glen showing outside of SVG. The No. 54 led 17 laps, ran inside the top three virtually all afternoon and brought home another exceptional road-course finish of third after briefly controlling the race late. The confidence curve continues pointing sharply upward for the young star, and Dover may suit him just as well. Gibbs already owns two top 10s in only three Cup starts there with an eye-opening 9.3 average finish. Add in his ARCA East Dover win from 2021 — when he led 125 of 125 laps — and the No. 54 team suddenly looks very capable of turning this recent surge into a signature Cup victory and All-Star moment.
Analysis: Though he was eyeing a win, Buescher delivered another steady points day at Watkins Glen, finishing 12th after methodically working forward through the race‘s second half. He also collected Stage 2 points, continuing a stretch where the No. 17 team has maximized nearly every weekend regardless of track type — a great sign come Chase time. Dover has historically been solid — if unspectacular — for Buescher in Cup competition, with three top 10s in 15 starts. But the broader resume can matter here too: Buescher won an O’Reilly race at Dover in 2015, and another clean, top-10-caliber run feels well within reach.
Analysis: Larson‘s Watkins Glen afternoon never got going, and as a recent dominator there, it’s a bit concerning amid some tepid 2026 returns. That said, Dover should provide a reset. Larson owns a win, 13 top 10s and an absurd 7.9 average finish there — the best average finish among active full-time drivers. Few drivers attack the high line at the “Monster Mile” better than Larson, and if the No. 5 team unloads with speed, he immediately becomes one of the favorites to dominate.
Analysis: Hocevar‘s raw finishing position at Watkins Glen — 28th — hardly reflected the pace his team showed early. Hocevar started 11th and ran competitively before fading badly after scrapping throughout the field late. Dover remains largely unknown territory for Hocevar at the Cup level with a pair of finishes outside the top 20, but the track‘s aggression-rewarding nature fits his style perfectly. The bigger story is still the standings: Hocevar sits seventh in points after 12 races and has put himself on the map as a star of the sport who could elevate his rising profile even further this weekend.
Analysis: Byron‘s Watkins Glen race unraveled late after showing respectable — but not race-winning-competitive — pace early, starting 13th but finishing 36th after struggling late. The timing of a no-pressure Dover race may be somewhat ideal. Byron has just four top 10s there in 11 starts, but proved he can control races there by leading nearly half the race in 2023 and will be hungry to check a lot of boxes — first Dover win, first 2026 win, first All-Star win, etc. — this weekend.
Analysis: Keselowski‘s Watkins Glen result was ugly on paper — 30th — but the veteran again showed flashes of pace that didn‘t translate into finish position, as the No. 6 team continues to be significantly more competitive in 2026 than its raw results often indicate. Dover could be the place where that finally converts, even if it won’t result in a points boost. Keselowski owns a Cup win there, along with 12 top 10s and more than 400 career laps led at the track.
Analysis: Wallace‘s Watkins Glen race was mostly a constant display of frustration, starting 18th and never establishing meaningful forward momentum before settling for 29th in another messy road-course outing with some notable scraps and an animated post-race pit-road discussion. Dover has historically been a difficult track statistically for Wallace, as well, who owns just one top 10 in 11 starts there.
Analysis: And here’s who was on the other end of the animated discussion — as Bell‘s Watkins Glen race never really ignited until he climbed out of his No. 20 Toyota. Bell started eighth, lingered around the edge of the top 10 most of the afternoon and ultimately finished 21st after failing to capitalize on strategy shifts and perhaps a little “help.” Now Bell heads to the site of one of his strongest statistical tracks back in his O’Reilly Auto Parts Series days and looking to make it back-to-back All-Star Race wins. The momentum might not be there and he hasn’t quite found success at Dover in Cup yet, but 67 laps led in the race last year inspires at least some degree of confidence.
Analysis: Preece quietly turned in one of the better drives through the field at Watkins Glen, starting 30th before methodically working his way to 14th to continue what has been a legitimately impressive season thus far. Dover hasn‘t historically been kind to Preece statistically, but this version of RFK equipment is far stronger than what he drove in many prior appearances there. Preece enters the All-Star Race 13th in points, and the combination of confidence plus organizational speed has made him one of the sneaky breakout stories of 2026.
Analysis: Briscoe backed up some recent speed with another excellent road-course performance at Watkins Glen as he continues to stop the proverbial bleeding. There‘s real reason to believe that carries into Dover, where Briscoe was runner-up last year and won the 2020 O’Reilly race at the track during his breakout season.
Analysis: Suárez continued his recent steady stretch with a 13th-place finish at Watkins Glen, keeping himself firmly in the thick of the playoff bubble conversation as the No. 7 team quietly rounds into a dependable week-to-week front-half-of-the-field entry. This could be the weekend he takes another step up, as Suárez has also historically run well at Dover, with five top-10s there in Cup competition and a win in the 2016 O’Reilly race at the track. If Spire Motorsports continues its recent upward trajectory, Suárez feels like one of the stronger dark-horse candidates entering the weekend for what would be a very large All-Star Race win.
Analysis: SVG absolutely dismantled the field at Watkins Glen in one of the more dominant performances in recent memory. SVG led 74 laps from the pole, erased a (very large!) late deficit after pit strategy shuffled him backward and still won by more than seven seconds. Dover presents a totally different challenge, but there are reasons for optimism. SVG‘s lone Cup Dover start produced an ugly 30th-place finish, but he did manage to qualify sixth. The bigger factor is confidence: the No. 97 team suddenly has a jolt and will race this weekend with nothing to lose. Another win and the No. 97 team will really be cooking.
Analysis: Cindric quietly pieced together a strong Watkins Glen afternoon after a strong day of practice and qualifying on Saturday, finishing ninth after running near the front early and collecting Stage 1 points. It was another reminder that the No. 2 team has become much steadier in 2026, and Cindric can typically be expected to be heard from on road courses. Dover remains an empty chalice for Cindric in Cup competition, though he did win the 2021 Xfinity race there and owns a sterling 4.6 average finish across seven starts in that series. Presumably he’ll break through here eventually.
Analysis: Logano‘s Watkins Glen race effectively ended before it ever truly began, and it’s officially time to be concerned here. The Penske driver and three-time champ started sixth but finished 38th after mechanical trouble and a short day dropped him to the bottom of the results sheet and outside of Chase contention. The good news for Logano is Dover has historically been one of his steadiest tracks, even if he’s yet to win there. He owns 15 top 10s in 29 Cup starts there and a dependable 14.5 average finish. Logano badly needs momentum right now, and this track may offer a path back toward at least some relevance.
Analysis: Chastain showed early aggression at Watkins Glen alongside his Trackhouse teammates, briefly leading four laps before fading to 27th by the finish in a bit of a missed opportunity. The speed flashes remain present, but the consistency simply has not followed for the No. 1 team this season. Dover has produced mixed results for Chastain historically. He owns two top fives there, but the average finish remains a rough 22.6. Trackhouse Racing‘s overall momentum from SVG’s win gives Chastain upside entering the weekend, but the execution level needs to improve quickly.
Analysis: Allmendinger, as expected, capitalized on another road-course opportunity at Watkins Glen, climbing from 12th to seventh while staying clean and disciplined all afternoon as he hit his marks. Dover, however, has traditionally been a far tougher challenge for the veteran. Allmendinger owns just three top 10s in 26 Cup starts there with a 23.2 average finish. The challenge this weekend becomes translating the recent momentum into a track type where outright speed and long-run balance matter far more than finesse alone.