Gibbs’ next Cup win soon?

Ty Gibbs’ first NASCAR Cup Series victory came in electric — and emotional — fashion, outlasting the field on older tires to prevail at Bristol Motor Speedway in what was his 131st career start in NASCAR’s premier circuit.

The 23-year-old Joe Gibbs Racing driver has had his fair share of trials and tribulations in the lead-up to Sunday’s conquest of “The Last Great Colosseum.” There were close calls, headlined by 21 career top-five finishes for Gibbs spanning back to his 2023 rookie campaign. There were some misses, too; look no further than his 17 career DNFs.

Such is the journey — a journey that requires time and patience — that every driver must take. That patience has paid off, and if recent history is any indication, more fruit from Gibbs’ labor could blossom into even more Victory Lane appearances.

RELATED: Bristol results | Analysis | NASCAR video highlights

Success can come in bunches, and if Gibbs follows a similar path to his peers, his next victory would come much sooner than 131 starts.

Following his Bristol win, Gibbs ranks fourth in the driver standings, trailing Tyler Reddick, Ryan Blaney and Denny Hamlin, with Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson and William Byron behind the No. 54 driver. Among these seven drivers, let’s see how many starts it took each driver to collect their second career win following their first, with information courtesy of Racing Insights.

Gibbs is the outlier at first glance, picking up his first victory in start No. 131; the other six averaged their first win in only 80 starts. But when looking at when those six drivers collected their second victory, the gap between the first and second wins is starkly reduced. In this instance, Blaney is the outlier, with 51 starts between his first two Cup wins. The other five drivers collected their second victory in 17 or fewer starts.

MORE: Where Gibbs stands in latest Power Rankings

Combine the numbers, and even with Blaney’s mark, the average start total for the six drivers between their first and second wins was 17 starts. If Gibbs followed this trend, that means his second win would come this season.

Of course, this is entirely hypothetical. Gibbs still has to go to the track and race. Numbers can only suggest so much. But let’s stick with the hypotheticals and say Gibbs were to pick up his second win this season. Sticking with the same drivers as before, what was the start gap between the second and third wins and beyond?

The numbers here tend to fluctuate a little bit more. Hamlin, for instance, has gaps of 25 starts or more between his third, fourth and fifth wins. Blaney is roughly similar, with gaps of 38, 18 and 29, respectively. But even these start totals for both drivers are but a blink of an eye compared to their career start accumulations. Blaney has tallied 386 starts in his career with 18 total wins, while Hamlin has logged 729 starts with 61 Cup victories.

Then there is the other extreme. Reddick’s gap from his second win to fifth equaled 42 starts, but even this doesn’t come close to the Hendrick Motorsports duo of Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson. Elliott’s gap from his second win to his fifth was 28, while Larson — the defending Cup Series champion — went from his second win to fifth in 21 total starts.

MORE: Cup Series standings | Cup Series schedule

So, what does this suggest for Gibbs? If nothing else, the 23-year-old has contended with the sport’s elite through the opening eight races of the 2026 campaign. While Gibbs has only one victory, many more could be on the way soon should he follow a path similar to his championship-winning competitors — once they started winning, they started winning.

Whatever the case, though, one thing is for certain: Ty Gibbs can now call himself a Cup Series winner. And if momentum — and prior history — is any indicator, the next win could be right around the corner.