NASCAR.com’s Pat DeCola ranks the top 20 Cup Series drivers competing for the 2026 championship after Chase Elliott’s win at Martinsville Speedway and before next Sunday’s Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway (3 p.m. ET, FS1, HBO Max, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). Kyle Larson enters as the defending winner.
Analysis: Martinsville went about as well as possible for Reddick while he fine-tunes his short-track regimen, hanging around the top 10 all afternoon and scoring points in both stages before fading slightly at the end. He’ll get another shot to work on his short-track muscle when racing resumes after the off weekend — Reddick has just one career top 10 at Bristol (2020), and just seven total laps led.
Analysis: Some races are just going to end the way Sunday’s ended, but even though Hamlin didn’t walk away with the trophy, he did score the most points. Plus, the clear takeaway from the afternoon was that there may not be a more dominant team in 2026 than the No. 11 Toyota — Reddick’s No. 45 included. Hamlin will very likely take No. 1 in these rankings in short order for the first fresh face up top since Daytona, especially as the man to beat at Bristol of late. | MORE: Hamlin‘s dominant day fades to runner-up at Martinsville: ‘We just got beat‘
Analysis: Another strong race car, but late contact with Denny Hamlin squandered any chance of making it to Victory Lane, though he still recovered to finish sixth. While Blaney has yet to win at Bristol, he’s gotten considerably better there over his career and his more recent finishes are much more notable than his 17.1 overall average finish at the Tennessee short track.
Analysis: The Chase is on in 2026, in more ways than one. Elliott appears dialed in so far this year and fully capable of maximizing this championship format, and it’s not out of the equation that he finds himself on top when the field of title contenders is reduced come Chase time. Like Blaney, it’s a surprise Elliott hasn’t won any of his 17 Bristol starts, as he has an even better 12.8 average finish — but two in a row coming off Martinsville is on the table.
Analysis: A slow pit stop nearly derailed Byron’s afternoon, but he recovered to finish in the top five by the end in a nice show of resilience for the No. 24 team. Like his Hendrick teammate above him (but certainly not the one below him), Byron hasn’t mastered Bristol yet, but does have a handful of really nice runs the past few years there. For now, though, he should concentrate on checking off this box first — nailing down his first lap led at the “Last Great Colosseum.”
Analysis: Larson had a somewhat eventful but at the same time altogether kind of nondescript day at Martinsville, notably trading paint with dirt rival Christopher Bell but ultimately hanging in that sixth-to-15th range and just landing ninth. He and Hamlin are the alpha dogs at Bristol for about the past decade, though, and as the winner of two of the past three there — including nearly 900 laps led in those — we could be about to end another Hendrick drought.
Analysis: Alright, it really might be happening, folks. Gibbs just continues to show hints of what he’s capable of, and it feels like he could blast through the ceiling at any moment. Everything appears to be lining up correctly for Bristol to perhaps be the precise spot of his first NASCAR Cup Series win — not only is Gibbs rolling, but Bristol also is arguably his best track, and he led 201 laps there last fall. | MORE: Gibbs continues hot start after Martinsville: ‘Just need a little bit more‘
Analysis: Kind of the same deal for Bell as Larson in terms of their afternoons, but the JGR driver wound up a couple of spots higher in the running order, with the exact same number of points. Though there have been some bright spots, it still feels like the No. 20 team is looking for its first big 2026 moment, and it very well could come once we return after the break at Bristol, where Bell owns six straight top 10s and walks in as the most recent winner at the track.
Analysis: Keselowski had a nice, methodical move through the field from a subpar starting position, doing just what he needed to stay out of trouble and focus on maximizing his day. He just continues to grind toward a long-awaited return to Victory Lane, and the wait could be about to end at Bristol, where he was runner-up just a handful of months ago and owns three career wins.
Analysis: A frustrating afternoon for Wallace, for sure, triggering a major multi-car crash out of frustration and winding up 36th as a result. He’s now gone from second in the standings to out of the top 10 remarkably fast, and it could go from bad to worse. While Wallace does have one recent top five at Bristol in the 2024 night race, it stands as one of his worst tracks, with an average finish outside the top 20 and just one other top 10 all the way back in 2020.
Analysis: Buescher had a frustrating afternoon as well, as he wasn’t running particularly well but got caught up in Wallace’s mess to ensure a finish off the lead lap. We’re only a few years removed from a Bristol win for No. 17, though, so he may not have to wait long before recovering.
Analysis: Logano finally looked like himself once again this past Sunday, as things are potentially stabilizing for the No. 22 team after a few misfires to open the season. While we know he’s capable of winning at Bristol, those trips to Victory Lane are distant, decade-plus-old memories, and five of his last six finishes there have netted results of 22nd or worse. | MORE: Logano moves up Martinsville top-10 streak list
Analysis: The season of Shane rolls on, as SVG continues to prove to every inch of the garage that he belongs in the Cup Series and deserves Chase attention. He narrowly missed out on a top 10 at Martinsville, and Bristol should present an excellent opportunity to show off how far he’s come, after his initial runs there left him self-admittedly puzzled.
Analysis: Preece had a similar day to his boss, starting 17th and steadily improving throughout the day — but only for a scant few spots to land 12th. Bristol has always been a place he could be competitive, regardless of which car he was driving, and the continued short-track strength RFK shows hints he may break through here eventually.
Analysis: Briscoe had a tough day at Martinsville that, thankfully for him, resulted in a not-too-terrible 14th, but he started 27th and it’s fair to question the inauspicious start the No. 19 team has gotten off to following a Championship 4 run a season ago. He’s a sleeper at Bristol, though, so perhaps he can rally his first laps led there last fall — all 127 of them — into a rebound race and a team-sparking win after the Easter holiday break.
Analysis: Hocevar started sixth and showed early speed, sticking around the top five for a bit before eventually being spun by Bubba Wallace in the later stages of the race. He continued on but lost crucial track position, and he’s yet to string together consecutive top 10s this year. He has shown above-average skill at Bristol in his young career so far, however, and notched his third top-11 finish in just five races there last fall.
Analysis: Just like his teammate in the No. 22 car, Cindric is starting to pick up steam after a fast, but unfruitful start. We’ll see what happens at Bristol, where most of Cindric’s six starts could be considered, well, slow and unfruitful — he’s started outside the top 20 four times and finished 20th or worse four times as well.
Analysis: So-so day for Suárez, taking the free pass earlier in the race only to later get caught up in a multicar crash and, of course, finish a lap down. Despite his litany of rides in his career, none of them have yielded anything resembling success at Bristol, where No. 7 has a 20.2 average finish and just two top 10s in 15 career starts — and three straight results of 31st or worse.
Analysis: Chastain and Co. took a gamble on late strategy that did briefly have the No. 1 car in the lead for 14 laps during the pit cycle, but he quickly faded on older tires as the race went on green. Still, there are some long-term concerns after a tepid start for this No. 1 team, especially given Chastain has yet to lead a lap at Bristol and has an average finish that’s just a hair inside the top 20 (19.5), so the tide isn’t likely to turn yet.
Analysis: If McDowell can continue to just hang around the top 20 when he needs to — like he did at Martinsville — and then maximize his days elsewhere on the certain tracks he excels at, there certainly is a legitimate Chase path for the veteran. Bristol has somewhat turned into one of those spots for him. While he’s only got a pair of top 10s in 28 starts there, four of his last 11 starts have been finishes of 11th or better.