NASCAR.com’s Pat DeCola ranks all 12 NASCAR Playoffs Championship 4 contenders from all three national series before a tripleheader of championship races at Phoenix Raceway.
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Analysis: Heim enters Phoenix with a staggering advantage, having put together the most dominant campaign across any national series this year. His 2025 season has been one for the history books, breaking the Truck Series record with 11 wins and compiling an extraordinary average finish of 5.2 — better than even Jeff Gordon’s legendary 1998 Cup Series season (5.7). More determined than ever, this championship is very much Heim‘s to lose — and he very likely won‘t.
Analysis: Much the same can be said about Zilisch, who has delivered one of the most impressive rookie seasons in NASCAR history with 10 wins of his own. He‘ll have the tough assignment of outrunning his JR Motorsports teammates, but his raw speed has been undeniable and a cut above. A P16 at Phoenix earlier this year is the mildest of concerns, but his average finish of 8.2 this season and ability to win on diverse track types suggest he’ll be competitive regardless. The prodigy’s combination of talent, momentum and equipment makes him the clear Xfinity favorite, though his path to the title itself isn‘t quite as well-paved as Heim‘s.
Analysis: The cruel irony: Hamlin is arguably the fastest driver in the Championship 4 and has just about every conceivable edge (including more time to prep than anybody), yet history suggests he’ll find a way not to win. Hamlin has made the Championship 4 four times previously — all failures. (And don‘t forget about how close he was in 2010.) But two career Phoenix wins (2012, 2019) prove he can win there despite not being in the upper echelon of his best tracks, and the overall strength of this team and how dialed in Hamlin has been in 2025 suggest this might actually, finally, definitely be the year.
Analysis: Byron’s clutch Martinsville victory — where he drove the race of his life and also bumped Ryan Blaney aside to win and advance — demonstrates the killer instinct required for championships that we may not have always grown accustomed to seeing from the current No. 24 driver, but definitely saw from a past one. This is a great sign for his title hopes this year and beyond, and it‘s hard not to think Byron and crew chief Rudy Fugle will show up to Phoenix just as locked in and full of momentum. A Bill France Cup will look good on his mantel next to a pair of Harley J. Earls.
Analysis: The defending 2024 Xfinity champion enters Phoenix positioned to potentially steal back the title from his young teammate that many are already handing it to. Allgaier’s experience is unmatched; he‘s been a fixture of the Xfinity Series Championship 4 field for years, and it‘s still shocking he hasn‘t won more titles, as his Phoenix history is exceptional. Allgaier knows how to manage pressure and could capitalize if Zilisch makes a rookie mistake. Or he could just flat-out beat him.
Analysis: Larson squeezed into the Championship 4 on points (plus-7 above the cutline) after a near-disaster at Martinsville, but his 2025 season metrics remain elite despite a trying year for the No. 5 group. At Phoenix, Larson has one win, two poles, 10 top-fives in 22 starts, and 395 laps led with a 10.7 average finish, so he‘s certainly capable. The 2021 champ brings speed, experience and proven Phoenix performance — not to mention arguably the best and most refined crew chief remaining in Cliff Daniels.
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Analysis: Here‘s where the list starts to get uncomfortable — because there‘s an argument to be made that Briscoe, having the best postseason of any Cup driver, should be much higher. No. 19‘s playoff surge has been extraordinary, and his clutch advancement to the Championship 4 in his first year with Joe Gibbs Racing is an accomplishment in itself. The fact that a title would just be gravy for him (with many more shots at it surely to come in the years ahead), while anything less than a championship would be short of the goal for the other three, gives them the slight edge. But then again, the 2025 qualifying master may just have the fastest car, so it may not matter.
Analysis: Obviously, it‘s tough to look past what Heim has done in the Truck Series this year, but Majeski does have an edge on him in one particular area — he beat him at Phoenix last year to land his first championship. Just goes to show you that anything is possible in these championship races, but Majeski, who hasn‘t won this year compared to double-digit wins for Heim, does have a hill to climb. But it’s a familiar trek.
Analysis: Love has the deck stacked against him a bit as he tries to topple a trio of JRM teammates, but his history and talent level suggest a potential spoiler role. He‘s the youngest NASCAR champion ever at 16 years old (ARCA Menards Series West), is also the 2023 ARCA champion, and it feels like the prodigy will add to his championship pedigree at the national series level as well at some point. However, he just barely made it to the Championship 4 after a really not-so-great Martinsville race, so it’s tough to see happening now. Definitely possible, but there‘s quite a bit to overcome here. Expect him to have another shot next year, though. Maybe in a title defense.
Analysis: Ankrum enjoyed the best season of his career and picked up his first win since 2019, but still just made the Championship 4 by exactly one point, and he‘s going to need plenty to go his way if he‘s to topple Heim. Still just 24 years old, simply making the Championship 4 represents a win and raises his ceiling and profile, but winning the title would require one of the more dramatic upsets in NASCAR playoff history, as Ankrum hasn‘t even led a lap since May.
Analysis: Kvapil’s Championship 4 berth is quite impressive: a rookie with zero wins, surviving on consistency and making the field after a dramatic Martinsville comeback from a spin. Kvapil could become the first Xfinity driver since Daniel Hemric to win both his first race and championship simultaneously, or win the championship without ever winning a race. The future is extremely bright for Kvapil, but he‘ll have a hard time overcoming the other three elite drivers he‘s competing with here. With JRM equipment, though, never say never.
Analysis: Honeycutt faces the longest odds of any Championship 4 driver, having joined his team midseason and surviving — just barely — to make the Championship 4 on a tiebreaker over Layne Riggs, finishing second at Martinsville. He‘s shown flashes of talent, but his last win at any NASCAR level was in 2023 in the ARCA Menards Series West. Honeycutt’s Championship 4 appearance represents a personal victory despite the midseason chaos, but winning the title would be, perhaps, the most shocking result in NASCAR playoff history.