Joe Gibbs Racing driver Chase Briscoe wound up doing what we alluded to here last week, punching his first career ticket to the Championship 4 in remarkable fashion Sunday at Talladega Superspeedway. Ryan Blaney, who has shown up to the Phoenix party fashionably late in each of the past two seasons with a last-minute win at Martinsville, is hoping to make it three in a row and punch his title ticket this weekend in Virginia.
NASCAR.com’s Pat DeCola ranks the 2025 Cup Series Playoffs contenders after the YellaWood 500 at Talladega Superspeedway and before Sunday’s Xfinity 500 at Martinsville Speedway (2 p.m. ET, NBC, Peacock, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App).
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Analysis: Hamlin was plagued by a debris-induced throttle issue at Talladega, relegating him to P24 when all was said and done after clawing his way back to the lead lap. He could’ve finished 40th, and it wouldn’t have made a difference in his title quest; No. 11 is already locked in on Phoenix. He’ll probably be in the mix this weekend at arguably his best track, however, as the six-time Martinsville winner would love to add a seventh not only for an additional grandfather clock, but also to potentially keep some of his stronger competition (i.e., Team Penske’s Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney) far away from title contention at Phoenix.
Analysis: If there were such awards in NASCAR as “Most Improved Driver” and “Most Valuable Driver,” one could strongly argue that Briscoe delivering three wins, the No. 19 car’s first Championship 4 bid since 2021, first ever superspeedway win and series highs in top fives and poles in his first year at Joe Gibbs Racing would have him capturing both. While the pressure is off and the focus turns to Phoenix, Briscoe is strong at Martinsville as well and — similarly to Hamlin — has incentive to win this one outright and play a bit of keep-away.
Analysis: All the pressure that Hamlin and Briscoe don’t feel? All of that now gets put squarely on the shoulders of Bell, who won three of the season’s first four races but is now at risk of watching his teammates compete for a title in Phoenix while he hopes for better luck next year. That said, he’s in a better position than any other non-locked-in driver, and he’s got the chops to take matters into his own hands (he is a former do-or-die Martinsville winner, after all) and ensure he joins his compadres in the desert for a championship chance.
Analysis: Instead of Briscoe, the driver with a dirt background who won his first superspeedway race was nearly Larson … before No. 5 ran dry at the end and walked away with a finish outside the top 20 and a stressful weekend ahead. Larson and Co. were cooking in the weeks before this letdown, however, and there’s an exceptional chance they find their way to Phoenix one way or the other this weekend at Martinsville, where he has six straight top-six results.
Analysis: A bit of a curveball here as one could reasonably argue that two-time defending Martinsville fall race winner Ryan Blaney is the most likely below the cutline to advance because, well, this is his race to lose. But take a look at that season low for Byron — never falling lower than sixth is nuts. The No. 24 team has put together one of the series’ most complete seasons, with what felt like consistently more above-average to excellent weekends than anybody else. A sneaking suspicion indicates the two-time Martinsville winner and his determined No. 24 group have at least one more “excellent” weekend in store for 2025.
Analysis: Blaney and Team Penske went from being in command late at Talladega to essentially being one with the wall this weekend at Martinsville, their backs completely up against it, and likely only one of either him or Joey Logano (or neither) being able to make it to Phoenix. Of course, going into the weekend, everything on paper indicates that Blaney should be the top contender this weekend; he hasn’t finished worse than 11th at Martinsville since 2018, and his two wins there have come in this race each of the past two years. Still gotta do it, though, and that’s a heck of a lot of pressure. But we know he can.
Analysis: Elliott’s dismal day at ‘Dega, finishing dead last after being an innocent victim in a Stage 1 wreck, lands him in must-win mode this weekend at Martinsville, which would be of utmost concern for plenty of drivers. Elliott, however, is generally a not-too-high, not-too-low kind of competitor, and will take his calm and cool demeanor into this weekend’s cutoff race in Virginia, and you can all but guarantee he’ll see the front of the field at some point. Elliott has led a whopping 1,275 laps at Martinsville, with 1,083 of those coming in this decade alone, and still has an excellent shot to advance with a win.
Analysis: I mean, it wouldn’t be a Joey Logano championship run if he didn’t do something exceptional, and that’s certainly on the table this weekend, should the No. 22 driver and three-time champion win at Martinsville to keep his hopes alive for a fourth title in 2025. All of the guys that need to win this weekend are great at the half-mile short track, Logano included, and No. 22 is riding a 12-race top-10 streak there. Never say never, especially with this No. 22 team.