Joe Gibbs Racing’s Christopher Bell put himself back on top of the championship conversation on Saturday night at Bristol Motor Speedway for the first time since an early-season, three-race win streak. Bell should be able to keep it rolling this weekend in the “Granite State,” where he has excelled in recent years and tested in July. Fellow Round of 12 competitor and New England native — not to mention defending and three-time champion — Joey Logano was also part of that test, and could be the first to clinch a Round of 8 spot in search of a landmark fourth title.
NASCAR.com’s Pat DeCola ranks the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs contenders after the Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway and before Sunday’s Mobil 1 301 (2 p.m. ET, USA Network, HBO Max, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App).
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Analysis: Bell‘s dramatic Bristol win cements him as the driver to beat at the worst possible time for his competitors. The Round of 12 is tremendously suited for Bell‘s skillset, with the No. 20 driver being in a class of his own at Loudon to start. The Oklahoman being in the Round of 8 by Sunday night is a realistic scenario — expect Bell to leverage his momentum and JGR‘s supreme playoff hot streak into perhaps a second straight victory.
Analysis: After a rare off night at Bristol — finishing 31st and five laps down — Hamlin‘s extensive history of success at Loudon offers optimism, even if mixed with a little phobia. A three-time NHMS winner (2007, ‘12, ’17) with eight additional top fives and a total of 19 top 10s in 31 career starts, he knows how to manage tires and late restarts at the “Magic Mile,” even if he‘s not thrilled about the creature that greets him in Victory Lane. Despite Bristol‘s setback, his status as points leader and master of tire wear suggest he‘ll rebound as a favorite at New Hampshire.
Analysis: A ninth-place result at Bristol added to Briscoe‘s momentum after his Darlington win, completing a trio of top 10s in the Round of 16. A Loudon win feels imminent in his future, showing he is more than capable of competing there with his past team and now getting a chance to drive for the team to beat in JGR — a team that also just swept the Round of 16.
Analysis: Blaney thrived at Bristol with a fourth-place run, leading 30 laps and capturing Stage 1. Though much has been made of Team Penske‘s flat-track program, Blaney has just one top 15 at Loudon this decade and has led laps in just two of his 12 starts there. That said, Blaney‘s smooth driving and Penske‘s generally strong history up north make him a dark horse for a New Hampshire victory.
Analysis: Larson endured a challenging Bristol, finishing a brutal 32nd in a race he was favored to win, but his record at Loudon is stout and a rebound should be in store. Despite having yet to win there, No. 5 owns six top fives in 14 starts — including a pair of top threes to open his career there as a 2014 rookie — and proven consistency on mile-long flat tracks bodes well for him in the “Granite State.”
Analysis: A mediocre 12th at Bristol underscored Byron‘s playoff form, which thus far has not been great — he struck out on top 10s in the Round of 16. Another spot where he‘s seen a dearth of top 10s? New Hampshire Motor Speedway: the track at which he has the most starts with no such finishes. Hendrick certainly has this one circled with that in mind, but there‘s no guarantee one of the year‘s best drivers gets it going again in time at this pivotal point.
Analysis: Logano, despite a rough recent Bristol resume and murky points outlook entering Saturday night, did what a champion does and survived to race another day, turning in a top-five run and moving on to the Round of 12. He now gets to go home to New England, to a track he tested at over the summer and one at which he‘s one of a small handful of drivers to beat. We may be about to go from “is defending champ Joey Logano about to be eliminated in the Round of 16 at Bristol?” to “actually, he‘s the first driver in the Round of 8” in a span of eight days.
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Analysis: Despite a 38th-place DNF disaster at Bristol, Elliott advances by points after nobody below the cutline was able to advance and knock him out. He‘s shown some decent capability at New Hampshire in the past — No. 9 has led double-digit laps in four of his 11 starts there — but it‘s only translated to three total top 10s.
Analysis: Reddick started the Round of 16 hot with a runner-up at Darlington and was then held out of the top 10 the remaining two races, but he could be getting back on the horse this weekend at Loudon. No. 45 led 53 laps there last year en route to a second straight sixth-place finish at the track, and he‘s seemed to pick things back up a bit overall the past month after a summer swoon. Don‘t be surprised if Reddick claims his first lobster this weekend and starts carving out his Championship 4 path, with a favorable Round of 8 for him ahead as well.
Analysis: Wallace saw the power of a points cushion at Bristol, wrecking out for a 34th-place finish but moving on to the Round of 12 before the race even concluded. Loudon generally has not been a great track for him, with two finishes better than 22nd and no laps led, but those two results were in the past three races there and for an average finish of 5.5. He‘s been strong lately, and there‘s a good chance it continues.
Analysis: Chastain finished the Round of 16 with no top 10s and has just one of those since Chicago as well, yet here he is, still in championship contention with seven races remaining. With three top 10s in his four most recent NHMS starts, it‘s quite likely he turns things around this weekend and could even re-enter the serious title talk.
Analysis: Maneuvering through a cockpit fire to finish 30th and advance, Cindric showed grit at Bristol as he defied the many who had him penciled in as a Round of 16 cut. He‘s yet to lead a lap or finish in the top 10 at Loudon, but this race will be one that he and Team Penske absolutely have dialed in as a place to finally pounce, and it would be quite a surprise to see him not turn in a competitive weekend.