Chase Briscoe reminded everyone on Sunday night why Joe Gibbs elected to turn to the Indiana native to replace the future Hall of Famer Martin Truex Jr. in the No. 19 JGR Toyota, capturing a second straight Southern 500 crown-jewel win at Darlington Raceway. Will Austin Cindric, Briscoe’s former Brad Keselowski Racing teammate back in their Craftsman Truck Series days, join him in the Round of 12 this weekend?
NASCAR.com’s Pat DeCola ranks the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs contenders after the Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway and before Sunday’s Enjoy Illinois 300 at World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway (3 p.m. ET, USA Network, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App).
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Analysis: The defending Southern 500 champion delivered a dazzling show of dominance at Darlington, leading 309 of 367 laps to become the first driver to win two in a row since Greg Biffle accomplished the feat in 2005 and 2006. With his Round of 12 spot locked in, Briscoe heads to Gateway, where he‘s yet to land in the top 15, but will be confident in his No. 19 team‘s current form and his ability to control his own playoff destiny.
Analysis: The top playoff seed struggled to 19th at Darlington, but his 38-point cushion provides comfort heading to Gateway, where he finished fourth in 2023 and 10th in 2024. Despite concerns about his summer form, Larson’s proven playoff track record and solid Gateway history (8.7 average finish) position him well to rebound as the championship favorite.
Analysis: The Darlington master started on the pole but couldn’t convert, though still walked away P7 with a 43-point buffer to keep him secure. The veteran also has strong Gateway credentials, riding consecutive runner-ups as he looks to inch closer to Round of 12 status this weekend.
Analysis: Reddick hustled valiantly at the end but ultimately secured a strong second at Darlington to jump from 14th to fourth in points, now sitting 35 points above the cutline after his clutch performance. He ran fourth at Gateway in 2024 and crashed out in 2023 while running competitively, but his recent form and ability to rise under pressure make him a serious Round of 12 threat and in good position to advance.
Analysis: The Regular Season Champion struggled to 21st at Darlington, one of his best tracks in a race he was expected to compete for the win, dropping to sixth but maintaining a 25-point cushion. His Gateway record shows some minor inconsistency, but Byron’s Hendrick Motorsports team typically finds speed when it matters most in the playoffs — and, particularly, when it needs to rebound.
Analysis: As expected at one of his lesser venues, Blaney got off to a slow start to the playoffs but still sits seventh with a 22-point buffer heading to Gateway, where his Team Penske organization has won twice in three Cup races. His first two races at Gateway averaged a top five, and he turned in a near-win in 2024 (led until running out of fuel), showing he has the speed to contend for a Round of 12 spot this weekend.
Analysis: A solid sixth-place finish at Darlington in a banner night for Toyota moved him into a tie for fifth in points with a crucial 25-point cushion above elimination. Wallace finished 21st at Gateway in 2024 for his “best” showing there yet, but his breakthrough Brickyard 400 win earlier this season proves he can deliver when pressure ramps up. He should keep it rolling.
Analysis: Chastain showed some life at Darlington despite ultimately finishing 11th to sit eighth in points with a 21-point buffer, though his inconsistency lingers as he searches for the speed that carried him early in the Next Gen era. He finished eighth in his first Gateway start in his revelatory 2022 season, but has since finished 22nd in 2023, 12th in 2024, showing decent results at the track where his aggressive style could either pay dividends or create trouble.
Analysis: The defending Gateway winner enters the weekend 12 points above the cutoff after a 12th-place showing at Darlington, returning to the scene of a raucous triumph could provide the spark he needs to escape the Round of 16. Anything close to the dominant performance like last year (scored 56 points) should have him very well positioned before he enters the gauntlet that is the cutoff race at Bristol a week later.
Analysis: Bell did not enjoy the wholesale Toyota success at Darlington, finishing 29th despite entering as a title favorite and now sitting 10th with only 11 points separating him from elimination. He was strong at Gateway in 2024, before engine issues, and averaged a top 10 in the other two races, showing he could have the speed to bounce back if he can avoid the mechanical gremlins that have haunted him lately.
Analysis: The Hendrick driver’s 17th-place finish at Darlington was Hendrick’s best result — which … yikes — and he now sits 11th with just nine points above the cutoff heading into a crucial stretch. His Gateway record is concerning, with finishes of 21st (2022) and 13th (2024) — with one fewer start on his resume than others after missing the 2023 race — and needs to find speed quickly or risk becoming a former champion eliminated in the opening round.
Analysis: The three-time champion finds himself in familiar territory below the cutline, sitting 13th and three points behind after a 20th-place finish at Darlington. However, Logano won Gateway’s inaugural Cup race in 2022 and has an exceptional track record there (wins in 2022, third in 2023, fifth in 2024), making him extremely dangerous despite his precarious points position.
Analysis: Major pit-road issues relegated Bowman to 31st at Darlington, leaving him tied for last in points and likely needing either a win or chaos ahead to survive. His Gateway results are concerning, but Bowman has proven he can deliver clutch victories, though the mountain appears steep this time.
Analysis: The Cup Series rookie sits 12th with just three points above elimination after a respectable but unspectacular Darlington playoff debut, in a race he was counting on big time. Gateway represents more uncharted territory, and he‘ll really need to surprise us over the next two weeks to stay above that elimination line.
Analysis: Dillon‘s 23rd-place finish at Darlington left him 14th and eight points below the elimination line, but he has legitimate reason for optimism heading to Gateway. The Illinois track is one of the few bright spots for Richard Childress Racing in the past handful of years, with teammate Kyle Busch winning there in 2023 and Dillon, himself, turning in a P6 there last year.
Analysis: Berry‘s playoff debut couldn’t have gone worse, spinning on Lap 1 and finishing 38th to sit dead last in points, 19 behind the cutoff. The No. 21 Wood Brothers Racing driver also crashed out of his Gateway debut last year and faces an uphill battle requiring near-perfect execution and significant help from competitors’ misfortunes to advance.