We‘ve reached the point in the Cup Series schedule when a single victory can change the entire complexion of the season — both for the winning driver, and for every other name on the bubble with their eye on that ever-shifting elimination line.
After last Sunday‘s race at Iowa, there are now just three dates left on the regular-season calendar: Watkins Glen (road course), Richmond (short track) and Daytona (superspeedway). Each has its own specialists — hello, SVG — and those who show up more at one track type than the others. But the common thread is must-win pressure, as a mere three playoff spots remain unfilled, and no one wants to leave their championship fate up to the point standings on the night of the final cutoff.
In other words, anybody who hasn‘t won a race yet this year (and that‘s all but 13 drivers) has their sights set on a checkered flag in these last three regular-season races. So let‘s fire up our race forecast model — which uses rolling projected driver ratings by track type to simulate each race thousands of times — and track which currently winless drivers have the best chance to barge their way into the playoffs the not-so-easy way.
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Because in roughly 70% of our simulations, at least one new winner emerged from below the playoff elimination line over the next three races — throwing the postseason picture we thought we knew into complete disarray.
Tyler Reddick (12.1% chance to win at least one remaining race)
Standings situation: 14th, +122 points to the elimination line
Simulated odds to win: 4.8% Watkins Glen | 3% Richmond | 5% Daytona
No driver can ever feel fully safe without grabbing a W to secure their playoff berth, but Reddick can sleep easier than others on the bubble. Not only does he have a healthy 122-point margin over No. 17 Ryan Preece in the standings if it comes to that, but he‘s also going into a situation with as good a chance to win his way in as anyone. While he‘s no Shane van Gisbergen, Reddick is among the best road racers in the sport, with an average Driver Rating of 92.7 (seventh-best) on those tracks this season, his fourth straight year with a rating above 90. Even with the spectre of SVG hanging over the field, The Glen is arguably Reddick‘s best shot at the playoff-clinching win. If not, he heads to a short track — a type where he‘s usually merely good, not great, though he has finished top 10 in consecutive races at Richmond. And finally, it might be down to rolling the dice at Daytona, where Reddick has either finished top five or outside the top 24 in all 12 races he‘s run. (Talk about high variance!)
Alex Bowman (11.7% chance)
Standings situation: 15th, +63 points to the elimination line
Simulated odds to win: 3.8% Watkins Glen | 3.9% Richmond | 4.5% Daytona
It feels like the winning breakthrough is coming soon for Bowman, who‘s finished 11th or better in seven of his past eight races, including three straight top 10s. And why not this week? Similar to Reddick, the driver of the No. 48 car is among the better road-course drivers in Cup, with the eighth-best average Driver Rating (86.4) on that type of circuit in 2025. That boosts his odds to win on Sunday — even though Watkins Glen hasn‘t necessarily contributed as much to Bowman‘s record in that regard as other tracks. If not, Bowman is merely OK at short tracks, though he is a former Richmond winner. And for whatever it‘s worth, he is consistently competitive on drafting tracks, even if he‘d prefer not to rely on that path to the playoffs. In roughly 30% of the simulations, Bowman gets at least two more top 10s, which would improve his chances to get in on points, but the win is a safer option.
Ty Gibbs (11.2% chance)
Standings situation: 19th, -87 points to the elimination line
Simulated odds to win: 5.3% Watkins Glen | 3.4% Richmond | 3% Daytona
Gibbs benefits from a couple of factors here. First, he‘s been in his best form of the season recently — as evidenced by his win in the In-Season Challenge two weeks ago at Indianapolis. While merely average the past few weeks, Gibbs had a Driver Rating in the triple-digits four times in six races before that, after breaking that barrier only once in the preceding 15 races. Second, Gibbs is on the short list of drivers who could actually win over SVG at a road course; his average rating on the twisty tracks is 93.5 this season, fourth-best in Cup. Gibbs finished fifth at Watkins Glen two years ago, so this weekend will be his best shot at winning his way into the playoffs — otherwise, he‘ll be relying on Richmond (where his record is nothing special) and Daytona (where his plate-racing skills are mediocre). Look for him to have it all ride on The Glen.
Chris Buescher (9.7% chance)
Standings situation: 16th, +23 points to the elimination line
Simulated odds to win: 4.2% Watkins Glen | 2.2% Richmond | 3.5% Daytona
Buescher is an interesting comparison for Gibbs, because the former is ahead of the latter in the standings (well ahead, in fact), but both are relying heavily on a road-course victory if they‘re going to win their way into the playoffs instead of sweating out the bubble. As the defending winner here, Buescher can absolutely do it again — we‘ve seen him do the incredible and pass SVG on the final lap at a road course, and he remains a solid road racer this season (even if his rating on those circuits is down to 10th-best in the series). But Buescher is not as strong on short tracks and superspeedways in general, which cuts into his chances in the statistical model. One note, however, is that in Buescher‘s career year of 2023, he won both the Richmond and Daytona summer races, so the general data may be underrating the magic he‘s hoping to pull off again this year.
Ryan Preece (9.2% chance)
Standings situation: 17th, -23 points to the elimination line
Simulated odds to win: 3.5% Watkins Glen | 2.8% Richmond | 3.2% Daytona
Speaking of career years driving for RFK Racing, Preece is having one of those this season — and if the racing gods are feeling generous, they‘ll help him add to it with a checkered flag before the final cutoff at Daytona. Back-to-back top fives at Indy and Iowa have capped off a recent stretch of consistency for Preece that‘s seen him finish 15th or better 10 times in the past 12 races, a big part of why he‘s close on Buescher‘s tail in the points. But the reason he‘s not higher here is that he has been less dominant than those finishes would lead us to think (he‘s cracked a 90 Driver Rating just twice in that period), lowering his ceiling for that breakthrough first career win. At the remaining three regular-season tracks, Preece has just five career top 10s and two top fives in 24 starts, so he‘ll need to improve his upside there in order to claim victory.
Brad Keselowski (8.7% chance)
Standings situation: 21st, -121 points to the elimination line
Simulated odds to win: 1.7% Watkins Glen | 4.1% Richmond | 3% Daytona
Of all the drivers who feel a desperate need for a win to extend their playoff chances and have driven well enough to get one, Keselowski tops the list. Unlike Bowman, who could still get in on points even if one new winner emerges from below him, Brad K. has essentially no chance to make up his 121-point deficit — and leapfrog five drivers (including two teammates) on points — over the next three races. So it‘s down to a must-win string of races for the 2012 Cup Series champ, who started the year miserably but has shown outstanding progress in recent weeks. Going back to Pocono on June 22, Keselowski has finished top 11 or better in six of his past seven races, and his current rolling projected Driver Rating is the highest it‘s been in more than a calendar year. (That includes a 124.4 at Iowa in a race he could have won.) He‘s still probably not in good enough road-racing form to win at The Glen, but Brad K. is good on short tracks as a multi-time Richmond winner, and has a Daytona night race win in his resume as well. A playoff-clinching win would seal one of the greatest in-season turnarounds of the playoff era.
Best of the rest: Michael McDowell (7%), Carson Hocevar (6.7%), A.J. Allmendinger (6.1%), Kyle Busch (5.3%), John Hunter Nemechek (4%).