Seven races remain in the Cup Series regular season, and the final laps of the Chicago Street Race last weekend saw a massive swing in the playoff standings.
Instead of fighting for another day and taking an important top-10 points day, Bubba Wallace played a little too rough with Alex Bowman through the tight confines of the 2.2-mile track and spun off Turn 2 after trying to clear ahead of the No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet. What would’ve been a top 10 faded to a 28th-place result for Wallace and the 23XI Racing team and now the eight-year veteran finds himself just three points above the elimination line with Ryan Preece on the move.
Two more road courses still loom before the playoffs, and Sonoma Raceway on Sunday (3:30 p.m. ET, TNT Sports/truTV, HBO Max, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) will likely see another major shift in how the picture looks at the bubble. With stats and probabilities provided by Racing Insights, see who’s trending in the right direction and who is on the back foot with another road course looming.
RELATED: Sonoma schedule | Cup Series standings
GREEN FLAG [Who’s in a great spot for Sonoma]
Preece has found the treasure as those above him in the playoff picture continue to make mistakes and bleed points away. It’s been a relatively quiet summer for the No. 60 RFK Racing driver, but the numbers should not go overlooked as he has finished inside the top 15 in seven of the last eight races, including five top 10s in that span. Preece fought through the final-stage calamity in the “Windy City” and brought home a massive seventh-place result, proving his talent extends far beyond the short-track scene. He also saw the highest jump in his playoff probability, up to 38.53% from just above 20% before Chicago.
Another driver to keep tabs on, and still seeking his maiden Cup win, is Ty Gibbs (18.65% playoff probability). He was runner-up to Shane van Gisbergen at Chicago and was matching the Kiwi on pace and strategy in Mexico City before an untimely Carson Hocevar caution nipped the No. 54 Joe Gibbs Racing team’s plan. He currently sits 66 points below the elimination line, and while not impossible to make up with just under two months left, a win will surely put a lot of noise and pressure to rest for the third-year veteran who has found a knack for road courses at the national level.
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YELLOW FLAG [Who’s on the fringe for Sonoma]
I’m only slotting Chris Buescher here because the No. 17 RFK team left a lot of points on the table after a mechanical issue ruined what otherwise could’ve been a day where Buescher really built his cushion to the elimination line. However, the stats for the Prosper, Texas native in Northern California are mind-blowing. He hasn’t finished worse than fourth in the three Next Gen races at Sonoma and led 32 laps in last year’s event. As long as the No. 17 car is at full song Sunday afternoon, look for Buescher to be in the mix for his first Cup win since Watkins Glen last season.
RACING INSIGHTS: Full race projections for Sonoma
RED FLAG [Who I’m concerned about heading to Pocono]
Back to the No. 23 team. If you are out of contention for the race win and running well, you have to pick and choose your battles. Yes, Bowman and Wallace were battling to advance in the In-Season Challenge, but there needed to be a balance between that and the big picture of trying to make the postseason. Wallace has certainly improved on road courses over the years, but a three-point buffer won’t make even the biggest No. 23 supporters confident going into Sonoma.
The numbers don’t bode well at Sonoma either for Wallace, as he does not own a top 10 in six starts at the track and has a best finish of just 14th (2021).