Kyle Larson did Kyle Larson things as he rode the high line to his first victory of the season over Hendrick Motorsports teammate Alex Bowman this past weekend down in South Florida.
NASCAR.com’s Pat DeCola ranks the top 20 Cup Series contenders after the Straight Talk Wireless 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway and before Sunday’s Cook Out 400 at Martinsville Speedway (3 p.m. ET, FS1, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).
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Analysis: Larson‘s Homestead triumph — in which he was second in passing, speed and defense per NASCAR Insights — could be a sign of things to come, as we’re now fully entrenched in a portion of the schedule that massively favors the 2021 champ. With a 2023 Martinsville win and five top-six finishes there since 2021, two in a row is very much within reach, and he might not be done after that.
Analysis: Byron salvaged 12th at Homestead despite a rocky final stage, but No. 24 appeared headed toward an even better day after picking up stage points in each of the first two. The two-time spring Martinsville winner already sports the top honors as the best restarter playing the best defense with the best speed, per NASCAR Insights, and win No. 2 of the season should be in play for the 2025 Daytona 500 winner.
Analysis: Back-to-back finishes outside the top 10 after back-to-back-to-back wins is a great example of how fickle NASCAR can be, but there’s no cause for concern just yet for Bell after a rough showing at Homestead. The Martinsville fall 2022 winner has likely been itching to get back to the Virginia track after the sting of last year’s penultimate race and should be in the mix for the win once again.
Analysis: A late wall scrape while battling his teammate cost Bowman his first win of 2025, but the runner-up marked his fifth straight — and series-best — top 10, proving his No. 48 team‘s consistency to open the year. His 2021 Martinsville victory and Hendrick‘s short-track dominance suggest he‘ll contend again this weekend.
Analysis: Reddick‘s eighth-place Homestead finish is probably a bit frustrating for him given his strength there, but No. 45 was 32nd-best on restarts Sunday so it could’ve been much, much worse. Martinsville has yet to fully click for him, with Reddick collecting just two top 10s en route to a very non-Reddick-like 20.8 average finish in 10 starts.
Analysis: Hamlin‘s fifth-place Homestead run was an encouraging one for No. 11, who has either finished in the top six or outside the top 20 in every other race so far this year. His Martinsville success is long and prosperous, and JGR‘s historical short-track edge makes him arguably Larson‘s chief threat.
Analysis: It’s a bit curious that Elliott doesn’t seem to be enjoying quite the same level of success so far as his Hendrick teammates, leading just a pair of laps on the season despite a healthy standings position. The 2020 Martinsville fall winner will likely come alive this weekend at the half-mile track, however, as he tends to lead laps in bunches there.
Analysis: Wallace‘s third-place Homestead finish — his first top five of 2025 — continued to show his gains from the tail end of 2024 that rolled into this year, and he has now led double-digit laps in back-to-back races for the first time since Daytona/Darlington last summer. Martinsville has tended to be a place where he performs well, too, and he could capitalize on it for a win this weekend.
Analysis: Blaney‘s Homestead engine failure and third straight DNF (a career-first) overshadowed what quite possibly could’ve been a dominant win for No. 12, as the driver with the best speed and the best passer at Homestead per NASCAR Insights. It likely won’t take too long to get back on the horse, however, as Blaney is exceptional at Martinsville and clearly has had a rocket most weeks so far.
Analysis: Buescher‘s sixth-place run at Homestead extended a strong start to the season, with a P30 at Atlanta being the lone outlier dragging down an otherwise excellent 11.8 average 2025 finish, which is still fourth-best among full-timers. Most of his short-track success has come at the non-paperclip-shaped ones, but it stands to reason that the speed and development he’s shown over the past few years should change that trend eventually.
Analysis: It remains unbelievably baffling, but Logano‘s P14 at Homestead extended his top-10 drought to six despite leading a series-high 247 laps. Though he has just one Martinsville win to his credit (in 2018), he’s consistently a front-of-the-field threat there and should break through for his first solid finish of the year this weekend.
Analysis: Berry definitely had a shot to be competitive, but Homestead was no slam dunk for the Las Vegas winner to follow that up with another win, though he did earn points in Stage 1. The short-track superstar has shown he has what it takes to win at Martinsville in the Xfinity Series, though, and it’s extremely possible his early season speed could peek out once again this weekend.
Analysis: Chastain entered Miami with a truckload of momentum for his home-state race, only to qualify 25th and finish a dismal 31st with six points collected. We’ve obviously seen what he’s capable of at Martinsville in the past, but despite that highlight reel move back in 2022 he has just an overall 18.6 finish with three top 10s and 31 laps led in 12 starts.
Analysis: Briscoe‘s fourth-place run was his first top 10 at Homestead in Cup and his best overall points day of the season so far as he begins to stabilize a bit. Martinsville was a place he was able to stand out in SHR’s waning years, so it’ll be interesting to see if he’s able to carry that over — and potentially improve upon — now that he’s with JGR, a team that traditionally excels there.
Analysis: Where there’s smoke, there’s fire, and Preece’s hot start could potentially be here to stay — he’s 12th in overall speed so far this season, according to NASCAR Insights. The longtime short-track star could finally show what he’s capable of at Martinsville, where he collected his first top 10 in his 11th try just last spring.
Analysis: McDowell is beginning to slip a bit — and still looking for his first top 10, somehow — but overall is still on pace for what would be a career-best average finish (16.3). Don’t expect his first one of the season to come this weekend, though … McDowell has never finished in the top 10 at Martinsville in a whopping 28 starts.
Analysis: Things very much are starting to trend in a way that doesn’t foretell a successful remainder of the season for Busch in his third season at RCR, and the sense that he was about to break through for a win in the near term is all but gone. That said, Martinsville is the kind of track that sheer will and determination play heavy, heavy factors and if “Rowdy” is dialed in this weekend he could compete for his third win there despite dwindling speed.
Analysis: A seventh-place starting position did not translate to in-race speed, with JHN turning in the 27th-best mark there on top of being 31st in speed for the season, per NASCAR Insights. A dismal 29.3 Martinsville average finish across four starts doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence he’ll be able to turn it on this weekend, either.
Analysis: Stenhouse likely isn’t destined for weekly top 10s this year, but he’s showing some above-average strength so far as his average finish (17.3) approaches his career-best (17.1), set in a two-win 2017 season. In terms of short tracks, Martinsville isn’t his favorite — he’s been formidable at Bristol at times but has just three top 10s in 24 Martinsville starts for a rough 24.1 average finish.
Analysis: Allmendinger is showing perhaps more life than many expected out of the veteran’s return to Cup, and he continued to be one of the best at Homestead as the race’s best restarter and best defender. He’s had some strong Martinsville Cup runs across his 25 starts, with a runner-up in 2016 being the best, but he hasn’t raced there at the top level since 2023 and could face an uphill battle.