Josh Berry hit the jackpot in Las Vegas, snapping Christopher Bell’s three-race win streak en route to his first career NASCAR Cup Series victory and 101st win in team history for the legendary Wood Brothers Racing.
NASCAR.com’s Pat DeCola ranks the top 20 Cup Series contenders after the Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and before the Straight Talk Wireless 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway (3 p.m. ET, FS1, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).
RELATED: 2025 Cup Series schedule | Full Cup Series standings | Watch NASCAR video highlights
Analysis: All good things must come to an end — including Bell’s win streak, which snaps at an impressive three races. Despite missing out on the top 10 in his attempt for four straight — but also making arguably the best split-second decision of the year so far — Bell remains the championship favorite. He’s also led in three straight Homestead races — on top of a pristine 8.8 average finish there across five Cup starts — winning in the fall of 2023. Toyota’s Vegas results were a bit befuddling, but look for Bell to potentially dominate once again this weekend.
Analysis: Bell’s wins may give him the overall edge, but Byron has been every bit as good and actually holds a healthy margin of points (29) over the No. 20 in the standings after just five races. Having a better average finish (8.0) than the guy who has won three of those five races (9.2) is also no small feat and he’s no slouch at Homestead, either. Byron has an excellent chance to capture win No. 2 this weekend, having won the last spring race at Miami in 2021 in dominant fashion and contending in each of the three fall races there since.
Analysis: For a good part of the race, Las Vegas appeared to be shaping up to fall right into the lap of Larson — now the track leader in laps led, with plenty of career still left to pad that stat — but late action cost him the win and forced him to settle for a top 10. Not a huge concern for him and the No. 5 crew; the next month of racing should be plenty kind to them, and as the likely favorite heading into Sunday, Larson should have another strong showing ahead of him at arguably his best track.
Analysis: Elliott is once again a top-20 machine to open the season, turning in five straight such finishes after remarkably hitting 16 in a row last year. That kind of consistency will certainly come in handy, but despite that, he has just one trip to Victory Lane since 2022. It feels like the No. 9 team is close, though, and a first win at Homestead — where Elliott averages a 9.8 finish — could be right around the corner.
Analysis: Reddick is a solid third in points, but thus far has just a pair of top 10s to show for his efforts, with Vegas (34 laps led but 24th-place result) being a frustrating one for him. Nothing that a trip to Homestead can’t fix, as Reddick — as you might have heard — is notorious for ripping the fence at the Florida track, where he’s the most recent winner. In four of his five races there, No. 45 has finished in the top four.
Analysis: It is obviously still extremely early, but Hamlin’s initial 2025 returns have him looking at a pace that would result in his worst average finish (15.6) since 2013. Considering he was runner-up last week, there truly aren’t any major concerns here, and the three-time Homestead winner could be having everyone saying, once again, “Is this the year?” by the end of the weekend.
Analysis: Along with his teammate Byron, Bowman is one of just two drivers with a top 10 in four of the season’s five races, and it’s not a stretch to say he could be rounding into a 2025 title contender with a win coming soon. One thing we’ll need to see more of is laps led (19 so far after just 67 all of last year). At Homestead, he’s yet to see the front of the field in nine starts.
Analysis: As frustrating as Sunday was for Blaney and the No. 12 group … did that not look like a championship-caliber team as the 2023 champ worked his way through the field multiple times and probably would’ve had a shot to contend for the win if his day didn’t end prematurely? Blaney will have plenty of motivation coming off that one, and very likely plenty of speed heading to Homestead, where he’ll be equally motivated to make up for a super frustrating end for him the last time we raced there.
Analysis: We’re onto you, Ross. You threw everybody off the scent with a P40 in Daytona, but don’t think we haven’t noticed your 9.0 average finish in the four races since. Your 14 laps led and top-five finish at Vegas — not to mention your resurgence late last season as a non-playoff driver — were a dead giveaway that you’re going to be a weekly contender again, and it’s hard to think the secret won’t get out this weekend at Homestead, where we know you like to run the wall and landed a runner-up just a few years ago.
Analysis: Honestly, at this point, it’s mostly just impressive how Logano can be one of the season’s best drivers (series-best — by far — 247 laps led) while having fewer top 10s (zero) than both Jimmie Johnson and Justin Allgaier, who each only ran the Daytona 500. Clearly just a fluke, Logano has plenty of speed in his No. 22 Team Penske Ford in his championship defense and the solid finishes are coming. Homestead may not go so well, however, as it was a better track for him in the Gen 6 car; he has just one top 10 there since 2019.
Analysis: Well, how about that? It appears Wood Brothers has found its cornerstone driver, with Berry capitalizing on serious speed at Las Vegas to deliver the team its 101st win, at a 1.5-mile track, no less. There’s a reason Berry’s talent has long been raved about and we shouldn’t rule out another win for him in 2025 — in fact, after a near top 10 last fall at Homestead with Stewart-Haas Racing just weeks away from closing its doors, two-in-a-row may be on the table.
RELATED: All of Wood Brothers Racing’s wins by driver
Analysis: Similarly to Chastain, Buescher’s overall average finish is hurt by one poor superspeedway result (30th at Atlanta) amid an otherwise strong four races — No. 17 is still holding a solid 13.0 across all five. Buescher is certainly on track to win this year, so why the dip in ranking? Because we shouldn’t expect the win to come this weekend — Buescher has never finished better than 13th in nine starts at Homestead.
Analysis: Wallace has had one of the more frustrating starts to 2025 of anyone, flashing plenty of speed but not much to show for it with one P9 at Atlanta but the remainder of his finishes all landing in the 20s. He’s led in each of the last three Homestead races — though only for a total of 13 laps — but overall it’s not an amazing track for him, with a 19.0 average finish and just one top 10 across six starts.
Analysis: And here’s “Logano Light” — McDowell has looked solid overall and the Vegas pole winner has found the front of the field, but he has been shut out of the top 10 so far for various reasons. He’s scored 21-plus points in four of the five races, though, to remain in the playoff picture and could have a strong chance to do so again this weekend. McDowell landed sixth on the results sheet the last time the series raced at Homestead in the spring.
Analysis: With three top-eight finishes heading into Vegas, there’s no need to write off “Rowdy” and his hot start, but Vegas was a tough one to swallow for the No. 8 bunch; they scored five or fewer points for the second time in five races. Busch has won two of the past 10 Homestead races, however, and has been quite good there overall after a tough learning curve to open his career at the 1.5-mile facility.
Analysis: Stenhouse is doing just enough to hang around, having no bad races yet (worst finish of 21st) but only one good race (P5 at Atlanta). A solid 23.2 points per race will keep him afloat for now, but it could be a struggle for him to hit that mark at Homestead. It’s not insurmountable, but it is notable that RSJ has never finished in the top 10 at Homestead despite racing there every year since 2012.
Analysis: After coming out strong with a pair of top 10s in the first two races, Nemechek is beginning to slip just a bit with no finish better than 14th since and no laps led overall just yet. It could all unravel at Homestead, too, where Nemechek has a rough 25.4 average finish and no finishes better than 19th — which came in 2020 with a different team and manufacturer.
Analysis: He’s got a ways to go, but Preece has improved his standings position each week since the Daytona 500 and has collected 30-plus points in back-to-back weeks to lift him. But wait, there’s more — like Berry, he turned in a solid performance at Homestead as SHR had one last gasp of performance last fall, earning his first career top 10 there. His second could come Sunday, in a better situation than he had a few months ago.
Analysis: After some undeniably down periods, there are glimmers of hope that Trackhouse Racing could be finding its way, as evidenced by Suárez’s near-win and ultimate runner-up run at Las Vegas. No. 99 hasn’t been “bad” at Homestead, with five of his eight starts landing him in the top 16, but he does have just one total top 10 there. If he’s for real, this could be a good proving ground for him.
Analysis: It seems to be a Team Penske phenomenon: Cindric continues to lead plenty of laps but Sunday’s P6 was just his second top 10 of the season, as he averages a result of just 17.2 so far. It’ll all even out eventually, though, and there’s a lot to like here for No. 2’s long-term 2025 outlook. Short-term could be a different story, though, as the veteran has no top-10 finishes at Homestead yet in his career.