Advance to Victory Lane: Iowa

On Sunday, the Cup Series is set to debut at Iowa Speedway for the Iowa Corn 350 powered by Ethanol (7 p.m. ET, USA, MRN Radio, Sirius XM NASCAR Radio), with Kyle Larson projected to cruise through the field en route to his fourth victory this year.

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Despite missing the Coca-Cola 600, Larson reclaimed the points lead after his Sonoma win last Sunday and is 14 points up on Hendrick Motorsports teammate Chase Elliott.

It‘s hard to find a track on the calendar that isn‘t in Larson‘s wheelhouse, but at Iowa Speedway, there isn‘t much data to prove it. Larson has made four Xfinity starts at the 0.875-mile oval, netting two top-five finishes and two top 10s.

Larson was at the Goodyear tire test in May at Iowa, which is a slight feather in his cap heading into the weekend. At short tracks overall, Larson has finished sixth or better in nine of the last 10 contests, including two wins last year at Martinsville and Richmond. As a bonus, Larson is also the most recent Father‘s Day winner (Nashville, 2021).

The Joe Gibbs Racing trio of Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell and Martin Truex Jr. follow Larson in the projection, with Elliott rounding out the top five. Brad Keselowski, William Byron, Tyler Reddick, Joey Logano and Bubba Wallace complete the projected top 10.

Sunday night’s race is set to be a thriller, with everyone in the Cup garage getting their first bite of Iowa Speedway in the Next Gen car.

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OTHER DRIVERS TO WATCH

DENNY HAMLIN: Hamlin has been the short-track king this season. He won at Bristol and Richmond and has finished top three in five of the last six short-track races. While he’s one of the few drivers with no experience at Iowa Speedway, it wouldn’t be a shock to see him respond to Larson’s Sonoma win with one of his own.

BRAD KESELOWSKI: The 2012 champ has been on a heater this season. Keselowski has routinely looked like a threat to win, and when you look at his Xfinity stats at Iowa, he should be in the mix this weekend. Keselowski has three wins, six top fives and seven top-10 finishes in seven starts at the circuit. He was also at the Goodyear tire test after the track’s repave.

JOEY LOGANO: Did someone say new track? Enter Joey Logano. The two-time champ seems to excel on debut tracks, winning the inaugural races at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum and World Wide Technology Raceway. Logano’s best performance this season came in a runner-up finish at Richmond.

KYLE BUSCH: Busch has two Xfinity starts at Iowa, marking a win and a runner-up finish. It’s also been 37 races since Busch’s last win — the longest streak of his career — meaning Rowdy is due to visit Victory Lane soon.

RICKY STENHOUSE JR.: Similar to Keselowski, Stenhouse also has three Xfinity wins on the Hawkeye State short track, and with two drivers outside the top 16 already owning wins (Daniel Suárez and Austin Cindric), Stenhouse could further shake up the playoff picture.

RACING INSIGHTS‘ PROJECTIONS FOR IOWA CORN 350 POWERED BY ETHANOL

Racing Insights‘ advanced statistical formula includes current track, current track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to arrive at a projected winner and full race results.