Racing Insights: Ryan Blaney is set to sizzle at Phoenix

With Chevrolets winning the first three races of the season, it’s only a matter of time until the other two manufacturers close the gap and find Victory Lane to even the score. Racing Insights predicts that we could see just that this weekend, with Ford driver Ryan Blaney projected to outduel his 2023 Championship 4 counterparts and already-made season winners William Byron and Kyle Larson to the finish line on Sunday in the Shriners Children’s 500 (3:30 p.m. ET, FOX, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

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After back-to-back performances of top-three finishes and finishing runner-up in the last three events at Phoenix Raceway, Sunday will be a prime opportunity for the 2023 Cup Series champ to carry the momentum and provisionally lock himself into the playoffs. 

The advanced metrics expect Blaney’s Team Penske teammate, Joey Logano, and the most recent Phoenix winner, Ross Chastain, to round out the top five. After that, Racing Insights projects the Toyotas of Martin Truex Jr., Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell, and Tyler Reddick to occupy the majority of the remaining top 10 spots and has Chase Elliott earning his first top-10 finish of the season.

Still, anything can happen in the Wild West, but expect this race to hold a great deal of weight despite it being just the fourth race of the 2024 season and the site of the finale down the road. Teams and drivers who have title hopes will get their first chance to cut their teeth into this year’s new short-track package and have an idea of what to expect if they find themselves contending for a championship come November.

OTHER DRIVERS TO WATCH

KYLE LARSON: Shocker, right? Well, the fact is plain and simple: Larson has been scary consistent on the 1-mile oval. In his last 10 races at Phoenix, he has netted nine top-10 finishes. There’s no doubt he will be a major player this weekend, aiming to earn back-to-back wins.

ROSS CHASTAIN: Chastain won last year’s season finale at Phoenix and led more than half the race, upsetting the Championship 4 drivers en route to Victory Lane. Additionally, he has finished in the top three in all but one Phoenix race in the Next-Gen era.

BRAD KESELOWSKI: While Keselowski is off to a cold start and has an average finish of 22.8 in the last four races at Phoenix, consider this to be more of a wild-card pick. The desert has proven to be a place where drivers can end dry spells, and given the unpredictable nature of the Cup Series, you never know when it could be your week.

KYLE BUSCH: Despite some early woes to start the season (apart from an all-time finish at Atlanta), Busch has always been a threat to win at Phoenix throughout his career. Not only does he have the most Phoenix wins among active drivers with three, he has a career average finish of 10.9 at the circuit.

CHASE BRISCOE: This is a sneaky-good pick to watch. Briscoe won the Phoenix spring race in 2022 and has turned in two additional top-10 performances in his last three Phoenix races. He also ranks fifth in most laps run in the top five at Phoenix Raceway in the Next-Gen era.

RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR THE SHRINER’S CHILDREN 500

Racing Insights’ advanced statistical formula includes current track, current track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to arrive at a projected winner and full race results.