Could Hamlin be next in the Champ 4?

Kyle Larson and the No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports team flashed their greatness in last weekend’s win at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, and with the way he won last year’s race at Homestead-Miami Speedway (leading 199 of 267 laps), the 2021 champion is the favorite to take the checkered flag this week, too. But one driver who could stop him is Denny Hamlin, who has three career wins at this 1.5-mile track in Florida.

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Hamlin bounced back from a 37th-place finish at the Charlotte Motor Speedway road course with a 10th-place finish last weekend at Las Vegas. The Charlotte finish ended a run of four straight top fives for the driver of the No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota. Hamlin is tops in average running position in 2023 (9.44) and second only to Larson in average running position in the playoffs (8.89 to Larson’s 6.81). Hamlin also leads all Round of 8 drivers with eight career wins in this playoff round.

Hamlin is just two points above the elimination line and has plenty to play for this week, including trying to stay ahead of JGR teammates Martin Truex Jr. and Christopher Bell, who are even and four points behind him in the standings, respectively. Hamlin has started first in five of the last six Homestead races, so if he’s dialed in early, expect him to be on course to have another solid weekend in South Beach.

PLAYOFF PICTURE

KYLE LARSON: As the only driver guaranteed a spot in the Championship 4 thus far, Larson theoretically could take it easy this week, but one has to wonder whether he has anything other than high gear given his competitive nature. He’s led more than 100 laps in three of his last six Homestead starts and figures to be a factor in running that high line up by the wall.

CHRISTOPHER BELL: Bell was the only other car that really gave Larson a run for his money last week in Las Vegas, and crew chief Adam Stevens and the driver of the No. 20 JGR Toyota lamented finishing second. They are plenty motivated and seem to have the right setup on 1.5-mile tracks (three straight top-10 finishes) to continue to gain ground on the other playoff drivers. At just two points back, Bell can probably taste a return trip to the Champ 4.

CHRIS BUESCHER: Buescher took a big step back last week by losing 20 points in the standings to drop to 23 points below the elimination line. It’s going to be tough to make up all that ground without a win or something catastrophic happening to another playoff driver. The problem is Buescher’s best finish at Homestead in seven starts is 13th place, so at least for this week the game might be not to lose any ground rather than to expect a big gain.

TYLER REDDICK: Reddick has the reputation of being able to ride the high line like Larson does and be successful at Homestead, and he has two top-five finishes in three career Cup races there. There’s a good deal of pressure on the driver of the No. 45 23XI Racing Toyota to perform this week because his history at Martinsville Speedway (one top-10 finish in seven starts) hasn’t been as strong as it is at Homestead.

RYAN BLANEY: When NASCAR rescinded the post-race penalty from the No. 12 Team Penske team, it improved Blaney’s circumstances from 56 points below the elimination line to a deficit of 17 points. That means Blaney’s chance for his first Champ 4 trip isn’t gone, but to make up ground this week he will have to buck the statistical trends at Homestead, where he has only one top-10 finish in eight starts.

Projections as of Wednesday, Oct. 18:

RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR THE 4EVER 400 PRESENTED BY MOBIL 1

Racing Insights’ advanced statistical formula includes current track, current track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to arrive at a projected winner and full race results.