CONCORD, N.C. — First, second and second. A Round of 12 average finish of 1.67. William Byron is acting every bit the part of a No. 1 seed entering the penultimate round of the postseason.
The Round of 8 in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs is here — and so is Byron. A win at Texas Motor Speedway on Sept. 24 gave the No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports driver an additional five playoff points to his total tallies, creating separation from second-seeded Martin Truex Jr. ahead of the round reset.
And while only five markers separate the two competitors, their respective swings in momentum could not be more opposite.
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Byron capitalized on being in the right place at the right time in every Round of 12 race, riding a streak of seven top 10s in his last eight races dating back to his Aug. 20 win at Watkins Glen International. A six-time winner this year — tripling his previous career-best season win total — Byron pounced on a late-race restart in Fort Worth to charge past Chase Briscoe and Bubba Wallace in the closing laps to capture victory.
At Talladega Superspeedway, a third-place finish morphed to second when Kevin Harvick’s No. 4 Ford was disqualified for an issue regarding loosened windshield fasteners. Byron was quick at his hometown track in Charlotte on Sunday, but his average running position of 7.58 didn’t indicate a runner-up finish was in store for the No. 24 team. He found a way to pick through the field toward the finish, though, and was just 0.666 seconds shy of his seventh win of 2023.
“Just proud of the whole team. We definitely improved a lot as the race went on,” Byron said. “… Just good momentum. We‘ve got to keep it rolling. I‘d like to finish one-two-two in the next round, too. That would be ideal, but we just have to keep performing like this, and we‘ll be where we want to be.”
On the other hand, Truex is struggling mightily by his standards. The 2017 Cup champion has won three races this year but hasn’t even finished inside the top 15 during the postseason — not since a sixth-place finish at Watkins Glen. His best finish in the six playoff races thus far? A 17th-place run at Texas.
The No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing team did enough to advance through the Round of 12 with finishes of 17th, 18th at Talladega and 20th at the Charlotte Motor Speedway road course.
“This track has just been a thorn in our side,” Truex said after Charlotte. “Feel good about moving on and feel good about what we can do the next three races. Some good tracks for us, and hopefully, we can get something going. It‘s been a pretty tough playoffs so far.”
The playoff points accrued over the course of the regular season have cushioned Truex’s buffer to the elimination line in each round of the postseason. Three wins garnered five playoff points apiece for 15 total, accompanied by an additional 15 for winning the Regular Season Championship. Throw in six stage wins for an additional six, and Truex has had 36 total playoff points to lean on as they carry over from round to round.
“I didn‘t create the system. We used it to our advantage. That won‘t get us through the next one,” Truex said. “The next one, you‘ve got to be running up front. Two winners of the next three races are probably going to be playoff guys that are still going. Need to turn it up, and we need to figure it out quickly.
“That‘s the beauty, and that‘s the thing that sucks about this deal, you know what I mean? I‘m sure there‘s guys that are upset. They outran us enough to get in, but they didn‘t have the bonus points. It is what it is. I hate that we didn‘t run better today or finish better, at least. I thought the first two stages, maybe our car was pretty decent, but, man, I don‘t know what happened. Need to go back and look at that. It wasn‘t much fun, but we made it, so here we go. We‘ll try three more.”
As it stands, Byron enters the Round of 8 with a 20-point margin over the elimination line, with the next divide set to occur after races at Las Vegas Motor Speedway (Oct. 15), Homestead-Miami Speedway (Oct. 22) and Martinsville Speedway (Oct. 29). Following Martinsville, four drivers will ship to Phoenix Raceway (Nov. 5) to fight for the Cup championship. The other four will see their title hopes erased.
Truex sits 15 points above that elimination line, with Denny Hamlin third (+11) and Kyle Larson fourth (+3). On the outside looking in are Chris Buescher (-3), Christopher Bell (-8), Tyler Reddick (-8) and Ryan Blaney (-10).
Hamlin led just three laps (all at Talladega) during the Round of 12 — a stark contrast from the Round of 16 in which he led 382 laps with finishes of 25th, second and first. Larson, who dominated the race at Homestead-Miami last year with 199 of 267 laps led, struggled through the Round of 12 after crashing out at Texas before midpack results at Talladega and the Charlotte road course, 15th and 13th respectively.
However, those two remain favorites to advance to the Championship 4. Results of fifth at Texas and third at Talladega propelled Hamlin forward, highlighting the speed the No. 11 Toyota has shown all year. Larson’s No. 5 team proved ever-resilient in Charlotte, where a practice crash led to a thrash two miles down the street at Hendrick Motorsports to prepare a worthy backup car. Team members worked until 3 a.m. ET Sunday morning to get the secondary vehicle ready. Their efforts paid off, and the 2021 Cup champion has a seemingly clear path to compete for title No. 2.
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Buescher ended the 26-race regular season on a tear, winning three of the final five events (Michigan, Richmond, Daytona) to net a critical 15 Playoff Points. The speed he showed in Michigan could translate to strong runs at Las Vegas and Homestead, but his hill to climb into the Championship 4 isn’t as steep as others.
Bell is used to life beneath the elimination line but used walk-off victories a season ago, both in the Round of 12 and the Round of 8, winning at the Charlotte road course and at Martinsville to launch into the title round. His 2023 Round of 8 entry was far less dramatic, and he’ll hope to need less flair to advance to the title round for a second straight season.
Reddick impressed with a late charge at Kansas Speedway in September to score the victory at the 1.5-mile tri-oval on a late-race restart. Vegas sets up similarly to Kansas and could play in his favor — as could Homestead, another 1.5-mile oval where he’s finished inside the top five twice in three starts.
Blaney enters at the worst deficit but perhaps with the sneakiest path to the Championship 4. This year marks the third consecutive season — and fifth overall — that Blaney has qualified for the Round of 8. Last year, strong runs at Vegas and Homestead were derailed by mistakes that saw the No. 12 Team Penske Ford spin in consecutive weeks. But he has performed well at both in the past — and his 9.5 average finish at Martinsville is his best anywhere in the Cup Series. And oh, by the way — he’s also finished second in each of the last two races at Phoenix.