Advance to Victory Lane: 2023 Nashville

All signs point to Hendrick Motorsports in Sunday’s Ally 400 at Nashville Superspeedway as Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott have claimed the two trophies since NASCAR returned to the 1.33-mile concrete oval in 2021. But it wouldn’t take a Music City Miracle for Stewart-Haas Racing’s Kevin Harvick to record his first win of the season there, as Racing Insights’ metric formula has him right near the top in this week’s projections.

Among active winners on concrete tracks, only Kyle Busch ranks ahead of Harvick, who has six such victories. Plus, Harvick is among a group of five active drivers who finished in the top 10 in the previous two Nashville races as he came home fifth in 2021 and 10th last season.

FANTASY LIVE: Set your roster | See weekend schedule

There also seems to be something in the water as far as veteran drivers winning of late. Busch, Martin Truex Jr. and Denny Hamlin are responsible for five of the last seven wins in the Cup Series, so maybe Sunday’s race (7 p.m. ET, NBC, NBC Sports App, PRN, SiriusXM) will be Harvick’s chance to shine as he makes his 807th career start and continues to put up impressive numbers (fifth in the standings) during his final full-time season.

That’s the case for Harvick, but let’s see who else is in contention for posting a big win after the off-week in what is shaping up to be a very close playoff race down the stretch.

OTHERS TO WATCH

KYLE LARSON: He won in 2021 at Nashville and finished fourth there last year after a speeding penalty on pit road. He also has the most laps led (264) in the last two races at Nashville.

KYLE BUSCH: Busch is the leader among active drivers in wins on concrete tracks with 11. He’s also enjoying a career resurgence and leads all drivers with five top-two finishes in 2023.

MARTIN TRUEX JR.: He has won two of the last six races this season and has the third-most laps led with 82 in the two Cup races at Nashville.

ROSS CHASTAIN: He finished in the top five in each of the previous two races at Nashville, but he’ll need to buck a recent trend where his average finish has been 18th over his last three starts.

Projections as of Wednesday, June 21

RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR ALLY 400

Racing Insights’ advanced statistical formula includes current track, current track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to arrive at a projected winner and full race results.