It’s Race 4 of the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series season: the FanShield 500 (Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET on FOX/FOX Sports App, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). Chase Elliott scored the Busch Pole Award, but is he worth the start in Fantasy Live? NASCAR.com’s RJ Kraft offers his race-day lineup and bonus picks below.
RJ Kraft race-day lineup for FanShield 500:
1: Kevin Harvick
2: Chase Elliott
3: Aric Almirola
4: Denny Hamlin
5: Brad Keselowski
Garage: Kyle Busch
Just missing the cut: William Byron, Kyle Larson, Kurt Busch, Erik Jones and Matt DiBenedetto.
Cars dropping to the rear: Martin Truex Jr. and John Hunter Nemechek.
MORE: Engine change sends Truex to back of the field
RELATED: Lap averages, practice results, more | Fantasy preview coming into Phoenix
Analysis: Harvick has nine wins at Phoenix, had the best 10-lap average and was one of the best cars on the long run in final practice. I’ve concocted my strategy around heavy Harvick usage early, so I’ll worry about his uses later in the season. Harvick’s Stewart-Haas Racing teammate Almirola is a sneaky play here with four top 10s in his last five starts and the fourth-best 20-lap average in final practice.
Elliott is on the pole, and I have toyed with using him in recent weeks but haven’t pulled the trigger. Entering the week, he and Larson were neck-and-neck for a spot in my lineup, but I like Elliott’s averages a bit more. The Hendrick driver placed in the top two in both practices. Hamlin won here in the fall and had the fourth-best 10-lap average in final practice. I’m a little worried about the drop-off on the averages board over 15- and 20-lap runs, but I’m willing to accept that risk since I have not used him this season. Keselowski gets the fifth spot in my lineup thanks to his leading the 15-, 20-, 25- and 30-lap averages. He’s another driver I’ve yet to use.
I debated the garage pick with a focus on the Busch brothers, Byron and Larson. For now, I’ve settled on Kyle Busch. I know he’s off to a slow start in 2020, but he has been the best driver here over the past three races — also since the 1-mile track was reconfigured. He has finished in the top two in all three of those races. I don’t like that I don’t have any long-run data from him, but I trust in the history.
Bonus picks: I’m taking Elliott to win Stage 1 with Harvick winning Stage 2 and the race. I’m taking Ford for the manufacturer pick.