Mvill Tp 2.jpg

Martinsville Turning Point

Here’s what’s happening in the world of NASCAR with Homestead-Miami in the rearview and Martinsville (Sun., 2 p.m. ET, NBC) up next.

THE LINEUP

1️⃣ What lasting moment will be made in Round of 8 finale?

2️⃣ Is Martinsville going to be Hamlin’s race to lose?

3️⃣ Brad Moran discusses tires for Martinsville playoff race

4️⃣ Will Ryan Blaney pull off a second straight “Jimmie Johnson?”

5️⃣ Catch the pack — news and notes from around the garage

tyler reddick burnout at miami
James Gilbert | Getty Images

1. What lasting moment will be made at Martinsville?


In a season — and postseason, in particular — full of jaw-droppers, it feels likely that the legendary half-mile will offer 2024’s latest historic moment.

Honestly, at this point, it’s hard not to feel spoiled.

The 2024 NASCAR Cup Series season has seen a plethora of impactful moments, at a tempo that has only seemed to ratchet up once the calendar turned to September.

Tyler Reddick‘s wall-riding, last-lap rampage as he stormed to the checkered flag and a Championship 4 berth Sunday at Homestead-Miami Speedway was just the latest entry in an overflowing bin of “holy $&*%” things we‘ve seen on the race track this year, reminiscent of Ross Chastain‘s “Hail Melon” at Martinsville Speedway a few years back, but on a track triple in size.

We now head to that same track — NASCAR‘s oldest and most historic — and it feels inevitable that come Sunday evening we‘ll be sitting back in our seats, in awe of what we‘ve just witnessed and clamoring for more.

There is perhaps no track more fitting to decide which four drivers will battle next weekend at Phoenix Raceway for the 2024 Bill France Cup than a quaint, half-mile in rural Virginia.

Everything always seems to happen in this race, from walk-off wins, to video-game moves, to sunset-drenched proclamations of “goin‘ to Homestead” to post-race shouting matches to interrupting a driver‘s burnout and calling him a hack. It feels like we‘ve seen it all at Martinsville, and yet it continues to surprise us.

Based on how things have gone for the past, oh, nine months or so, do we have literally any reason to think another memory won’t find a permanent home in NASCAR lore on Sunday?

“Martinsville is probably the perfect place for being an elimination race,” two-time champion Joey Logano told Ford Performance. “I know NASCAR thinks about this stuff when they put the schedule together and they look at Martinsville and think, ‘Everyone is gonna be really close to each other. There’s gonna be full contact. A lot of things can happen.‘ You look at all the (elimination) races that we have. Bristol, cars are all over each other. The Roval, the tightest road course we go to and the cars are all over each other. Martinsville it‘s the same thing, so you‘ve got to expect drama when you go there. Some people will be in do-or-die scenarios and what are they willing to do?”

If a driver answers with anything other than “win at all costs” … better luck next year.

Apart from Logano and his fellow locked-in Reddick, no other Round of 8 drivers are safe entering the weekend, even Christopher Bell with his 29-point cushion as the top driver not yet clinched. A win is the surest way to keep your championship hopes alive a week from now, and for those below the elimination line, the history ain‘t too pretty if they‘re counting on making up that deficit.

Only once has a driver pointed their way into the Championship 4 when entering the final race of the Round of 8 below the bubble. Martin Truex Jr. did that from sixth place in the standings in 2021, and he only needed to dig out of a measly three-point hole. With everyone from Kyle Larson (fifth, -7) and on facing deeper deficits than that, he and Denny Hamlin (-18), Ryan Blaney (-38) and Chase Elliott (-43) should consider this nothing short of a must-win race.

The good news for them, though, is that this is a common occurrence — a playoff driver has won the final race of the Round of 8 when entering below the elimination line in 40% of this format‘s history. And in each of the past five seasons, at least one driver from below the elimination line after the first Round of 8 race has made the Championship 4; in this case, that would be Hamlin, Blaney or Elliott.

Those three drivers have a combined 10 elimination-race wins in playoff history and are each formidable at Martinsville historically, so if you‘re looking for drivers to keep an especially close eye on, it‘s worth starting with them. Especially considering that of the three eventual Cup champs to win their way into the Championship 4 from below the elimination line, those are two of ‘em.

RELATED: Playoff standings before Martinsville | Playoff Pulse: Winners and losers from wild Miami race

James Gilbert | Getty Images

2. Is Martinsville going to be Hamlin’s race to lose?


The home-stater Hamlin has had Martinsville wrapped around his finger for a long time, but it might not be enough to hold off his feisty competitors.

“You’re not out of it till they throw the checkered flag at Martinsville,” Denny Hamlin said after Sunday’s race at Homestead-Miami Speedway, where he left below the elimination line.

For now, Hamlin’s championship hopes are indeed dwindling yet still alive — but we’re a handful of days away from knowing if that’ll remain the case or if we’re a few months away from the perpetual slew of “This could finally be Denny’s year”-type preseason coverage we’ve grown accustomed to.

At times, it definitely has felt like 2024 was going to be the one (honestly, a not-too-unfamiliar feeling), and at times, it has looked, once again, like something would happen to snatch the potential of a first Cup Series championship from his grip.

With everything on the line at Martinsville and some recent spirited playoff performances, though — you can feel pretty good about him making his first Championship 4 since 2021. After that, who knows, but it feels like he’ll get there.

The Chesterfield, Virginia, native’s five wins are nearly as many as the rest of the playoff drivers have combined (seven), and while Hamlin and the No. 11 coalition are not immune to in-race mishaps and toe-stubbing, crew chief Chris Gabehart always seems to bring a fast car to the race track when his driver needs it the most.

Hamlin will undoubtedly be a factor, but what has made this Round of 8 so compelling is just the sheer magnitude of talent from top to bottom on display. If you want that Championship 4 spot, you’re going to have to really work for it.

“This is so, so intense and we knew coming into the Round of 8 with these drivers, we were going to have winners, winners and winners,” said Bell, the only back-to-back Championship 4 contender looking for a third. “Coming to Homestead, you look at the guys who run well here and you’re expecting a winner from the bottom half of the grid, and I think the same thing will happen in Martinsville.

RELATED: Watch NASCAR video highlights

He was right — Toyota teammate Reddick won from well below the elimination line after flipping a week earlier at Las Vegas.

While that descriptor applies to his Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Hamlin, it also applies to Elliott — who’s riding a series-best six-race top-10 streak on short tracks, the longest of his career. And good golly, have you seen Hendrick Motorsports’ Martinsville stats?

Just to list a few:

• Only team to lead more than 10,000 laps at a track (10,852 laps led at Martinsville)
• 29 wins there are the most ever by a team at a track
• Won five of the last eight Martinsville races with four different drivers
• Finished 1-2-3 in April, the first 1-2-3 finish by a team ever at the track

With three drivers remaining, battling with each other (along with three other, less friendly drivers) for just two remaining spots, surely we’ll see at least one Hendrick pilot at the front of the field for a good, long stretch, and possibly all three. That said, while Hendrick has won five of the last 12 races there, JGR and Team Penske — the other two teams with drivers looking for Championship 4 spots — won the other seven, so it’s not a complete monopoly.

It’s also worth noting that Logano will be driving with absolutely no pressure this weekend and is sporting the longest top-10 streak he’s ever had at a track in Martinsville (10). It’s the longest active top-10 streak of any driver at the venue as well, so we can’t rule it out that he plays spoiler and takes away his competitors’ ability to take fate into their own hands with a win. Team Penske is just stout there, with Blaney in a great spot this weekend, too — his nine top fives at Martinsville are his most at any track.

And we obviously know what happened here last year.

So while the race feels like in some ways Hamlin’s to lose based on his history, there are plenty of hungry and capable wolves waiting to pounce on a Championship 4 berth, should they get the opportunity to feast.

3. Brad Moran discusses tires for Martinsville playoff race


NASCAR Cup Series Managing Director Brad Moran details the changes to the Cup Series tires ahead of the Round of 8 finale at Martinsville Speedway.

 

4. Will Ryan Blaney pull off a second straight “Jimmie Johnson?”

Four times did “Seven Time” win the Martinsville playoff race en route to a title — and once three years in a row. No. 12 has an excellent shot to become just the second driver to do it back-to-back, as winning at Martinsville often indicates a title is near. (Credit: Racing Insights)

Year Champion
2006 Jimmie Johnson
2007 Jimmie Johnson
2008 Jimmie Johhnson
2011 Tony Stewart
2016 Jimmie Johnson
2018 Joey Logano
2020 Chase Elliott
2023 Ryan Blaney

 

5. Catch the pack — news and notes from around the garage

Power Rankings: Will Chase Elliott relive 2020 path to title, win Martinsville clincher?

Paint Scheme Preview: 2024 Martinsville playoff

NASCAR betting: 2024 Martinsville playoff race odds

2024 NMPA Most Popular Driver voting now open

Analysis: The 14 minutes that changed the 2024 Cup Series Playoffs

Hendrick heartbreak: Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott come up short at Homestead

Analysis: How Reddick bested Blaney at Miami — why No. 12‘s defense didn‘t work

Off into the sunset: Tyler Reddick‘s final two laps from Homestead

Analysis: Tyler Reddick digs down deep, goes ‘beast mode‘ in signature last-lap moment at Homestead

Larson battles back through Homestead hindrances, dips below elimination line after late spin

Kyle Petty sounds off on Homestead race: ‘What was the 12 car thinking?‘

@nascarcasm: Fake texts to Miami winner Tyler Reddick

Updated championship odds after Homestead

James Gilbert | Getty Images