What to Watch: Roval preview

Bank of America ROVAL 400

(Sunday, 2 p.m. ET | NBC | NBC Sports App | PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio)

Weekend schedule TV schedule | Weather tracker | NASCAR 101

Location: Charlotte Motor Speedway road course, Concord, North Carolina
Track length: 2.28 miles
Race purse: $8,056,677
Race distance: 109 laps | 248.52 miles
Stages: 25 | 50 | 109

Starting lineup: Shane van Gisbergen to lead field to green Sunday
Pit stall assignments:
See where drivers will pit
Defending winner:
AJ Allmendinger, October 2023

Key things to watch

Saturday sessions

Saturday belonged to Shane van Gisbergen at the Charlotte Roval as he won both poles for the Xfinity and Cup Series events. With a hot lap of 99.246 mph, the 35-year-old driver earned his first Cup Series pole by holding off playoff driver Tyler Reddick, who will start on the front row with him. AJ Allmendinger and a pair of Team Penske teammates below the elimination line in Joey Logano and Austin Cindric completed the top five in Sunday’s starting lineup.

Kyle Larson (sixth), Chase Elliott (seventh) and William Byron (10th) rounded out the group of playoff drivers entering Sunday’s Round of 12 elimination race with good track position. Chase Briscoe will start last among the playoff field in 25th.

Denny Hamlin struggled in both practice and qualifying, citing his car being “too loose” in the infield section of the course over the No. 11 team’s radio. He finished 23rd in practice and will start 18th on Sunday. | Full Saturday recap

Big story line

Reddick, Elliott, Logano fighting for Round of 8 berths on elimination line

The big elephant in the room is how the reconfigurations in the frontstretch and on the transition to the oval will affect the racing this weekend, but the battle right on the elimination line is quite intriguing.

Regular-season champion Tyler Reddick, 2020 series champ Chase Elliott and two-time titleholder Joey Logano are seventh, eighth and ninth, respectively, in the playoff standings with Elliott and Logano separated by 13 points for the final spot while the No. 45 driver sits just one point ahead of Elliott.

All three drivers could be considered title favorites with their postseason history or performance in 2024 but why this is such an interesting battle is that all three drivers are strong at the Roval. The trio all rank in the top five for average finish in the six-race history of the event, with Logano having the lowest among the three at a whopping 8.7 clip. Elliott is the only driver among the three to win at the Roval and he’s the only Cup driver with multiple wins at the oval/road-course hybrid.

RELATED: Watch NASCAR video highlights

If playoff history means anything, the No. 22 Team Penske driver is not getting eliminated Sunday. In every even year since the birth of the elimination format in 2014, Logano has made the Championship 4, which means one of Elliott or Reddick is trending toward a surprise bounce from the 2024 playoffs.

Knowing Logano and crew chief Paul Wolfe’s willingness to take some big risks to maximize a result, both Elliott and Reddick need to keep the No. 22 in their sight or the writing could be on the wall for their quests for the Bill France Trophy.

History tells us…

A past champion gets eliminated Sunday. Since the introduction of the Roval in 2018, a past Cup Series champion has been eliminated in every race at the Charlotte road course whether the race was held in the Round of 16 (2018, 2019) or Round of 12 (since 2020). In order, Jimmie Johnson, Kurt Busch, Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Kyle Larson and Brad Keselowski all saw their playoff campaigns end in their respective years. Oh, and as mentioned earlier, Elliott and Logano are the last in and first out of the Round of 8 picture.

Elliott and Logano are more than capable of bucking that trend with their past performances at the road course, but with double-digit points for Logano to make up on those above him, it will be a tall task barring mistakes from any drivers that are in a comfortable position entering Sunday.

Defending series champion Ryan Blaney is 25 points to the good on his teammate, which could also put him within the trend’s dreaded reach this weekend.

He may not be the betting favorite to win, but watch out for…

ZANE SMITH. Sure, some of Smith’s best results this year have come amid chaos, which is why I’m picking him here as a 130-1 long shot. However, the No. 71 Spire Motorsports team, led by crew chief Stephen Doran, has been exceptional on road courses this season.

Smith has finished inside the top 20 at every road course in 2024 with his best result coming most recently at Watkins Glen (fifth). It’s been an impressive second-half run this year from the rookie, who has finished no worse than 23rd since Richmond, and in that span between the short track and this weekend, he’s scored three top 10s (Michigan, Watkins Glen, Kansas). Look for the No. 71 to be in contention for another top 10 on Sunday. | Roval odds

Speed reads

Our biggest pieces of the week — get covered for race day from all angles.

• Revamped Roval: Read up on the changes to the Charlotte road course ahead of Sunday’s race | Read article
• Fantasy update:
No surprises in mix of playoff and non-playoff drivers for your lineup | Read article
• Who’s in, who’s out?:
Odds for playoff drivers fighting to survive at Roval | Read article
• Clinching scenarios:
How Cup playoff drivers not already locked in can do so on Sunday | Read article
• Walk-off winners:
Cup drivers to win elimination races to advance to next round | Photo gallery
• Bubble Watch:
Which drivers need big points day on Sunday? | Photo gallery
• Catch-22: 
Why drivers will need to track two-time Joey Logano throughout Sunday’s race | Read article
• Inside the Race:
How Charlotte Roval reconfiguration will change the racing | Watch video
• Crew rosters:
See the full roster for every Cup Series team competing this weekend | Read article
• Active road-course winners:
Chris Buescher is the most recent winner on a road course | Photo gallery
• Power Rankings: Next stop, Championship 4 for William Byron? | Photo gallery
• Road-course ringers:
The winningest Cup Series drivers on left, right-turn circuits | Photo gallery
• Turning Point: How many Hendrick drivers will make the Championship 4? | Read article
• NASCAR Betting:
Which road-course ringer is favored at the Roval? | Photo gallery
• Racing Insights:
Full finishing order projections for Sunday’s playoff race | Read article
• 36 for 36: Check out this week’s survivor pool picks | Read article
• Fantasy Fastlane:
Use a mixture of playoff, non-playoff drivers in your Sunday lineup | Photo gallery
• Fantasy Update:
Finding the right balance at Charlotte Roval | Read article
• Memorable moments: Races for the history books from Watkins Glen | Photo gallery
• Watkins Glen gladiators:
Full list of Cup Series race winners | Photo gallery
• NASCAR Classics: Rewind with three Roval all-timers from the vault | Read article
• Paint Scheme Preview:
New renders for the Charlotte Roval | Pick your favorite

Fast facts

Race-relevant statistics, brought to you by the experts at Racing Insights.

AJ Allmendinger (2023) is the only non-playoff driver to win at the Charlotte Roval.
Hendrick Motorsports drivers have won three of the four road-course races in 2024, all three by different drivers.
The last two road-course winners got their first win of 2024.