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Ford 400 Fantasy Racing Preview

Driver Averages | Laps Led Leaders | Driver Ratings | Past Winners

Detailed driver notes and statistics to help set your fantasy racing lineup for Sunday’s Ford EcoBoost 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway.

Who’s HOT at Homestead-Miami

  • Kevin Harvick has posted a 2.5 average finish in the last four races, including a win in 2014.
  • Kyle Busch has recorded a 3.0 average finish in his last three starts, including a win in 2015.
  • Kyle Larson has combined to lead 279 laps and post a 3.3 average finish in the last three races.
  • Martin Truex Jr. led 78 laps en route to the win last year.
  • Joey Logano has a 4.7 average finish in his last three starts.
  • Denny Hamlin is the only multiple race winner.

Keep an Eye On at Homestead-Miami

  • Jimmie Johnson, who is making his last start with crew chief Chad Knaus and sponsor Lowe’s, has finished in the top 10 in four of the last five races at Homestead-Miami, including a win in 2016. He only has one top 10 in the 10 races at 1.5-mile tracks this season.
  • Brad Keselowski (9.0), Erik Jones (11.0), Ryan Blaney (12.9), Aric Almirola (13.4) and Kurt Busch (13.5) each rank in the top 10 in average finish in the 10 races at 1.5-mile tracks this season. Almirola led the most laps (70) at Chicagoland with the same tire combination that will be used this weekend.
  • Chase Elliott finished fifth last year in this event to lower his average finish to 8.0 in two starts at Homestead-Miami.
  • Matt Kenseth is coming off his first top 10 of the year with Roush Fenway Racing. He finished in the top eight in his last five starts at Homestead-Miami with Joe Gibbs Racing. Kenseth has made three starts this year at 1.5-mile tracks with RFR with a best finish of 17th (Charlotte).

Notes: Monster Energy Cup Series teams will the same combination of left- and right-side tires that was used at Chicagoland Speedway…Kyle Busch won that race with Kyle Larson, Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr. and Clint Bowyer finishing second through fifth, respectively…The most winners (4) at Homestead-Miami have come from the second starting spot with Truex Jr. the last to do so in 2017…This is the second consecutive year that Kyle Busch, Harvick and Truex Jr. have advanced to the Championship 4…The last 15 races at Homestead-Miami have been held on its current configuration after it was reconfigured from 6 degree banking to 20 degree variable banking…Five drivers in the field have competed in each of those races with Harvick leading the way with a 5.9 average finish and 14 top 10s in that span.

*Best Average Finish at Homestead-Miami

Last # of Races Driver Average Finish
Two Races Kyle Larson 2.5
Four Races Kevin Harvick 2.5
Six Races Kevin Harvick 4.7
Eight Races Kevin Harvick 4.9
Ten Races Kevin Harvick 4.4

* – The best average finish is based off a driver entered in the race who has competed in every race during that time span.

Laps Led Leaders at Homestead-Miami

Last # of Races Driver Laps Led
Two Races Kyle Larson 277
Four Races Kyle Larson 279
Six Races Kyle Larson 280
Eight Races Kyle Busch 292
Ten Races Kyle Busch 293

Click Here to view all laps led leaders at Homestead-Miami over the past 10 races.

Homestead-Miami Loop Data Stat Leaders (2005-2017, 13 Races)

Average Running Pos. Laps in Top 15
1. Matt Kenseth – 9.5 1. Matt Kenseth – 3,020
2. Kevin Harvick – 8.6 2. Kevin Harvick – 2,869
3. Chase Elliott – 8.9 3. Martin Truex Jr. – 2,692
4. Martin Truex Jr. – 9.1 4. Jimmie Johnson – 2,505
5. Kyle Larson – 9.1 5. Kyle Busch – 2,480
Fastest Laps Run Driver Rating
1. Kyle Busch – 252 1. Kyle Larson – 109.3
2. Martin Truex Jr. – 193 2. Kevin Harvick – 106.8
3. Kyle Larson – 181 3. Matt Kenseth – 106.8
4. Kevin Harvick – 178 4. Martin Truex Jr. – 104.1
5. Matt Kenseth – 138 5. Kyle Busch – 98.9

2017 Homestead-Miami Stage Finishes
Championship 4 do not earn stage points

Stage 1 Stage 2
1. Kyle Larson 1. Kyle Larson
2. Brad Keselowski 2. Martin Truex Jr.
3. Kyle Busch 3. Kevin Harvick
4. Kevin Harvick 4. Kyle Busch
5. Martin Truex Jr. 5. Brad Keselowski
6. Chase Elliott 6. Kurt Busch
7. Kurt Busch 7. Matt Kenseth
8. Denny Hamlin 8. Joey Logano
9. Joey Logano 9. Chase Elliott
10 Clint Bowyer 10. Denny Hamlin

Rookie Report
William Byron, the 2018 Rookie of the Year, and Bubba Wallace each will be making their first start at Homestead-Miami Speedway in the Monster Energy Cup Series. Wallace and Byron have posted respective average finishes of 23.9 and 25.8 in the 10 races this season at 1.5-mile tracks. Both drivers saw their only top 10 at a 1.5-mile track come at Texas Motor Speedway in April.

MRN.com Staff Picks
Jeff Wackerlin: Kevin Harvick
Pete Pistone: Kevin Harvick
Tyler Burnett: Kyle Busch

Driver Notes – Ordered by Average Finish (Top 15) in the Last Five Races at Homestead-Miami

Kevin Harvick is the only driver that has finished in the top 10 in each of the last 10 races at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Harvick has finished fourth or better in the last five races, including a win in 2014 when he took the championship. Last year was the first time in the last six Homestead races that Harvick did not lead a lap. He combined to lead 187 in the previous five races. Harvick has won four of the 10 races (penalized after Texas win) at 1.5-mile tracks this season. He’s led 867 laps in those races, including 39 at Chicagoland Speedway with the same tire combination that will be used this weekend.

Matt Kenseth is making his 15th start of the season with Roush Fenway Racing and is coming off his first top 10 with a seventh-place finish last weekend at ISM Raceway. Kenseth’s last five starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway came with Joe Gibbs Racing and all resulted in finishes of eighth or better. Kenseth, who won this event in 2007 with Roush Fenway, has made three starts at 1.5-mile tracks this season with a 24.0 average finish.

Denny Hamlin has started and finished in the top 10 in the last five races at Homestead-Miami Speedway, including a win in 2013. He also has two poles in the last three races. Hamlin’s last of four top 10s in the 10 races at 1.5-mile tracks this season came at Chicagoland Speedway where he finished seventh with the same tire combination that will be used this weekend.

Joey Logano has posted a 4.7 average finish in the last three races at Homestead-Miami Speedway. He led 72 laps in 2015 from the second starting position en route to a fourth-place finish. Logano has finished in the top 10 in each of the last five races at 1.5-mile tracks and has combined to lead 205 in the last four.

Kyle Larson has combined to lead 277 laps and post a 2.5 average finish in the last two races at Homestead -Miami Speedway. He is one of two drivers that have finished in the top five in the last three races. Larson has finished in the top 10 in the last seven races at 1.5-mile tracks, including two runner-up finishes. One of those second-place finishes came at Chicagoland Speedway with the same tire combination that will be used this weekend.

Chase Elliott finished fifth last season at Homestead-Miami Speedway to lower his average finish to 8.0 in two starts. Two of Elliott’s three top 10s at 1.5-mile tracks this season have come in the last two races, including a win at Kansas Speedway last month.

Brad Keselowski has finished seventh or better in four of the last five races at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Keselowski has posted a 6.2 average finish in the last five races at 1.5-mile tracks this season, including a win in the playoff-opener at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

Jimmie Johnson has finished in the top 10 in four of the last five races at Homestead-Miami Speedway, including a win in 2016. Johnson’s lone win in the 10 races at 1.5-mile tracks this season came in the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway.

Kyle Busch has finished sixth or better (3.0 average finish) in the last three races at Homestead-Miami Speedway, including a win in 2015 when he scored the championship. Busch leads the series in average finish (5.2) in the 10 races this season at 1.5-mile tracks and has three wins. His last win at a 1.5-mile track came at Chicagoland Speedway with the same tire combination that will be used this weekend.

Jamie McMurray has finished 13th or better, including two fifth-place finishes, in the last four races at Homestead-Miami Speedway. McMurray’s last of two top 10s in the 10 races at 1.5-mile tracks came at Charlotte Motor Speedway in May.

Ryan Newman has finished in the top 10 twice in the last four races at Homestead-Miami Speedway, including a runner-up in the championship in 2014. Newman’s lone top 10 in the 10 races at 1.5-mile tracks this season came at Las Vegas Motor Speedway in September.

Martin Truex Jr. led 78 laps in this last year en route to the win and the championship. The win was his first top 10 in four Homestead-Miami Speedway starts with Furniture Row Racing. This season, Truex has finished in the top 10 in nine of the 10 races at 1.5-mile tracks, including a dominating win at Kentucky Speedway in July.

Kurt Busch has posted a 13.5 average finish in four starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with Stewart-Haas Racing. Busch won at HMS in 2002, but it was the last race on the old track configuration. Busch is coming off his sixth top 10 in the 10 races at 1.5-mile tracks this season with a seventh-place finish at Texas Motor Speedway.

Austin Dillon has posted a 15.5 average finish in four starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Dillon finished 10th earlier this month at Texas Motor Speedway for his first top 10 in the 10 races at 1.5-mile tracks this season.

Clint Bowyer finished 12th last season in his first Homestead-Miami Speedway start with Stewart-Haas Racing. His six top 10s in 12 overall starts at HMS came with Richard Childress Racing and Michael Waltrip Racing. Bowyer’s last of three top 10s in the 10 races at 1.5-mile tracks came at Chicagoland Speedway with the same tire combination that will be used this weekend.