Driver Handicaps: Texas

Driver Handicaps

Kyle Busch, the defending event winner, and Jimmie Johnson have combined to win the last three races at Texas. (Photo: Getty Images)

Driver Averages Loop Data eBook (pdf)Driver Ratings Past Winners

To assist in making your fantasy racing picks, MRN.com's Jeff Wackerlin breaks down all the stats and information to help steer you toward Sunday's Duck Commander 500 at Texas Motor Speedway.

Who's HOT at Texas
• Kyle Busch has posted a 5.7 average finish in his last three starts, including a win in this event last year after leading 171 laps.
• Jimmie Johnson and Carl Edwards lead all drivers with three wins each.
• Matt Kenseth leads all drivers with a 6.0 average finish in the last 10 races.
• Two-time winner Greg Biffle's only finish outside the top 10 in the last 10 races is a 12th last fall.
• Brad Keselowski - winner at Las Vegas Motor Speedway last month - has posted a 5.7 average finish in his last three starts.
• Dale Earnhardt Jr. has finished in the top 10 in six of his last eight starts.

Who to Keep an Eye On at Texas
• Joey Logano, who won the pole and finished fourth at Las Vegas last month, has posted a 6.3 average finish in his last three Texas starts.
• Kevin Harvick, who has posted a 10.4 average finish in his last five Texas starts, was fast in testing at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and led 23 laps in the Vegas race before a front hub locked up.
• Jeff Gordon has only posted two top 10s at Texas since his win in this event in 2009, but does have the second-best average finish (8.3) among all drivers in the six races this season.
• Tony Stewart has posted one win and a 12.9 average finish in nine starts with Stewart-Haas Racing at Texas.
• Martin Truex Jr. (8.6), Kasey Kahne (10.2) and Clint Bowyer (11.4) each rank in the top 10 in average finish in the last five races at Texas.
• Last week's winner Kurt Busch does have one win at Texas, coming with Penske Racing in the 2009 fall race. He will make his first track start with Stewart-Haas Racing in a new chassis.
• Two-time winner Denny Hamlin did not race in this event last year because of injury, but does have a three top 10s in the last four races on 1.5-mile tracks, including a win at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Brian Vickers, who subbed for Hamlin last year and finished eighth, will make his first track start with Michael Waltrip Racing.
• Kyle Larson has yet to post a top 10 on a 1.5-mile track in his young career but does like racing at these types of tracks, especially ones like Texas that have a worn out surface.
• Paul Menard will return in the same car that he finished third with at Las Vegas last month.

Tire Notes: Teams will run a new right-side tire that will have Goodyear's multi-zone tread technology.  The left-side tire is the same one teams have run at the track since 2011; and have also run at Chicagoland Speedway, Darlington Raceway and Homestead-Miami Speedway in 2013.

Be sure to check back at MRN.com for practice speeds Friday and Saturday.

Texas Qualifying Facts - Note: First at the Track under new "Knockout" Format

*Poles
*Best Starting Avg. 
Races Won from Starting Pos.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. - 2
Jimmie Johnson - 8.5
Pole - 3 times
Jeff Gordon - 2
Dale Earnhardt Jr. - 11.3
Top Five - 17 times 
Ryan Newman - 2
Kasey Kahne - 11.8
Top 10 - 20 times
Martin Truex Jr. - 2 Jeff Gordon - 12.2
Top 15 - 20 times
  Greg Biffle - 12.7
Worst - 31st, one time

* - Must be entered in the Duck Commander 500 at Texas Motor Speedway.  In the last six races, the winner has come from a top-five starting position.  The average margin of victory in the last five races is 2.01 seconds.

2014 Top "Knockout" Qualifying Performers (5 Races)
Driver Avg. Start Poles Final Rounds
Joey Logano 3.4 1 5
Brad Keselowski 4.2 1 4
Jimmie Johnson 5.4 0 5
Kyle Busch 9.8 1 3
Jeff Gordon 9.8 0 3
Clint Bowyer 9.8 0 3
Denny Hamlin 10.5 1 3
Matt Kenseth 11.6 0 3
Jamie McMurray 12.2 1 3
Carl Edwards 12.6 1 3

*Best Average Finish at Texas

Last # of Races
Driver
Avg. Fin.
Two Races
Jimmie Johnson
3.5
Four Races
Jimmie Johnson
2.5
Six Races
Jimmie Johnson
5.3
Eight Races
Jimmie Johnson
5.4
10 Races
Matt Kenseth
6.0

* - The best average finish is based off a driver who has competed in every race during that time span.

Texas Motor Speedway Loop Data Stat Leaders (2005-2013, 18 Races)*

*Fastest Early in a Run
*Fastest Late in a Run
Avg. Running Position
1. Kyle Busch
1. Jimmie Johnson
1. Matt Kenseth - 9.0
2. Matt Kenseth
2. Matt Kenseth
2. Jimmie Johnson - 10.3
3. Greg Biffle
3. Tony Stewart
3. Tony Stewart - 10.8
4. Carl Edwards
4. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
4. Kyle Busch - 10.9
5. Jimmie Johnson
5. Kyle Busch
5. Dale Earnhardt Jr. - 11.5
Laps in Top 15
*Quality Passes
*Driver Rating
1. Matt Kenseth - 4827
1. Greg Biffle - 742
1. Matt Kenseth - 107.2
2. Jimmie Johnson - 4660
2. Dale Earnhardt Jr. - 736
2. Jimmie Johnson - 106.4
3. Dale Earnhardt Jr. - 4624
3. Matt Kenseth - 709
3. Greg Biffle - 101.8
4. Greg Biffle - 4457 
4. Carl Edwards - 703
4. Kyle Busch - 101.6
5. Carl Edwards - 4425
5. Denny Hamlin - 696
5. Tony Stewart - 99.1

*Must be entered in the Duck Commander 500.
*Fastest Early In a Run: Ranks each driver during first 25 percent of laps run since a pit stop.
*Fastest Late In a Run: Ranks each driver during last 25 percent of laps run since a pit stop.
*Quality Passes: Passing a car running in the Top 15 while under a green flag.
*Driver Rating: Formula combining the following categories: Wins, Finishes, Top-15 Finishes, Average Running Position While on Lead Lap, Average Speed Under Green, Fastest Lap, Led Most Laps, Lead-Lap Finish. Maximum: 150 points per race.


For a look at all the pre-race Loop Data for Texas, view the Duck Commander 500 Pre-Race Loop Data eBook (pdf)

Season Loop Data Leaders

*Fastest Early in a Run
*Fastest Late in a Run
Avg. Running Position
1. Brad Keselowski
1. Jimmie Johnson
1. Jimmie Johnson - 8.7
2. Joey Logano
2. Kevin Harvick
2. Matt Kenseth - 9.7
3. Jimmie Johnson
3. Carl Edwards
3. Dale Earnhardt Jr. - 9.8
4. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
4. Jeff Gordon
4. Jeff Gordon - 10.5
5. Jeff Gordon
5. Brad Keselowski
5. Denny Hamlin - 10.7
Laps in Top 15
*Quality Passes
*Driver Rating
1. Matt Kenseth - 1634
1. Jeff Gordon - 541
1. Jimmie Johnson - 115.6
2. Kevin Harvick - 1539
2. Brad Keselowski - 504
2. Dale Earnhardt Jr. - 108.8
3. Denny Hamlin - 1526
3. Kevin Harvick - 459
3. Joey Logano - 104.0
4. Jimmie Johnson - 1506
4. Denny Hamlin - 450
4. Matt Kenseth - 102.4
5. Dale Earnhardt Jr. - 1488
5. Matt Kenseth - 434
5. Brad Keselowski - 102.1

*Fastest Early In a Run: Ranks each driver during the first 25 percent of laps run since a pit stop.
*Fastest Early In a Run: *Fastest Late In a Run: Ranks each driver during last 25 percent of laps run since a pit stop.
*Quality Passes: Passing a car running in the Top 15 while under a green flag.
*Driver Rating: Formula combining the following categories: Wins, Finishes, Top-15 Finishes, Average Running Position While on Lead Lap, Average Speed Under Green, Fastest Lap, Led Most Laps, Lead-Lap Finish. Maximum: 150 points per race.


MRN.com Staff Picks

Jeff Wackerlin: Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Pete Pistone: Jimmie Johnson
Dustin Long: Jimmie Johnson
John Singler: Matt Kenseth

Top 20 Driver Notes - Ordered by Current Standings

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Returns to the site of his first career win with six top 10s in his last eight starts at Texas, including a runner-up finish last fall.  In the first race of the 2014 season on a 1.5-mile track - and first with the new rules package - Earnhardt led 52 laps and finished second at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, and will race that same car (chassis No. 822) this weekend.  In the last five races on 1.5-mile tracks dating back to Kansas Speedway last fall, Earnhardt is tied with Matt Kenseth for second among all drivers in average finish (6.0).  Earnhardt is also tied for the active pole lead at Texas and has made the final round in "knockout" qualifying once in five attempts this season.

Matt Kenseth: The overall leader in top fives (13), top 10s (16) and average finish (8.3) in his 23 starts at Texas.  He scored two wins (last coming in this event in 2011) driving for Roush Fenway Racing in his first 21 starts at the track.  Last year, he raced at Texas for the first time with Joe Gibbs Racing, posting finishes of 12th and fourth.  In the last five races on 1.5-mile tracks dating back to Kansas Speedway last fall, Kenseth is tied with Dale Earnhardt Jr. for second among all drivers in average finish (6.0).  In the last three races of this season, Kenseth has made the final round of qualifying and won the pole at Auto Club Speedway.

Carl Edwards: Tied with Jimmie Johnson for the most wins (3) at Texas, his last one coming in a sweep of both races in 2008.  Last fall, Edwards won the pole and led 38 laps before engine issues.  He finished fifth last month in the first race of the season on a 1.5-mile track.  In the five races so far this season where "knockout" qualifying has been held, Edwards has made the final round in the last four.  This weekend, Edwards will look to finish in the top 10 for the ninth time in his career at Texas driving a new car (chassis No. 897) in the Duck Commander 500.

Jeff Gordon: A winner of this race in 2009, Gordon will become the all-time starts leader at Texas this weekend when he takes the green flag for the 27th time.  His last of 11 top 10s came in this event in 2012, fourth place.  Gordon has finished in the top 10 in three of the last four races on 1.5-mile tracks dating back to Kansas last fall, including a ninth-place run last month at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.  Gordon will return this weekend in the same car (chassis No. 830) that he ran at Vegas, but with a special Texas A&M School of Engineering paint scheme.  Gordon will also be looking to make the final round of qualifying for the fourth consecutive week on Saturday.

Jimmie Johnson: Coming off his third win at Texas, tying him with Carl Edwards for the most at the track.  Johnson has finished ninth or better in seven of his last eight Texas starts and has the third-best average finish (8.3) in the last 10 races there.  In the first race of the season on a 1.5-mile track - Las Vegas Motor Speedway - and first with the new rules package, Johnson led 34 laps and finished sixth.  In the past five races on 1.5-mile tracks dating back to Kansas Speedway, Johnson leads all drivers with a 5.2 average finish.  He is one of only two drivers to make all five final rounds of "knockout" qualifying this season and will return in the same car (chassis No. 797) that he won with at Texas last fall.

Kyle Busch: Won this race last year for his first Cup victory in 17 Texas starts.  He is second only to Johnson in the last three races there in average finish (5.7).  In the first race on a 1.5-mile track this season - Las Vegas Motor Speedway - and first with the new rules package, Busch led 52 laps and finished 11th.  Busch, the Texas qualifying record holder, is coming off his first pole of the season after making the final qualifying round for the third time this year.

Brad Keselowski: Has finished ninth or better, and has led a combined 105 laps, in his last three starts at Texas.  His average finish of 5.7 in that span is second only to Jimmie Johnson and tied with Kyle Busch.  In the first race on a 1.5-mile track - Las Vegas Motor Speedway - and first with the new rules package, Keselowski led the most laps (53) en route to the win.  He is the only multiple winner (2) in the last five races on 1.5-mile tracks dating back to Kansas Speedway last fall.  Last weekend, Keselowski missed the final round of qualifying for the first time this season as the team was concentrating on race runs in practice.  This weekend, Keselowski is piloting a new car (chassis No. 862).

Joey Logano: Last season, Logano made his first two Texas starts with Team Penske - posting an average finish of 4.0.  He's coming off his best finish in 11 overall starts, third place.  In the first race on a 1.5-mile track - Las Vegas Motor Speedway - and first with the new rules package, Logano won the pole and led 44 laps en route to a fourth-place finish.  Along with Johnson, Logano is the only other driver that has made the final round of all five "knockout" qualifying sessions this season.  This weekend, Logano will return in the same car (chassis No. 848) that he last finished 14th with at New Hampshire Motor Speedway last fall.

Austin Dillon: Will be making his first Cup Series start at Texas in the No. 3 for Richard Childress Racing.  Last season he posted a 27.5 average finish in the two races driving both the No. 51 and 33 cars, respectively.  This weekend, Dillon will debut a new car (chassis No. 465) in the Duck Commander 500.

Ryan Newman: Coming off a pair of top-10 finishes at Texas driving for Stewart-Haas Racing.  This weekend, Newman will make his first track start with Richard Childress Racing in the same car (chassis No. 456) that he finished seventh with at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, the first 1.5-mile track of the season.  Newman does have one victory at Texas, winning with Team Penske in 2003.

Paul Menard: Has posted a 16.2 average finish in six Texas starts driving for Richard Childress Racing.  His best finish with RCR came in this event in 2011, fifth place.  Menard had a strong run in the first race on a 1.5-mile track this season, finishing third at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.  In fact, Menard will be back in the same car he ran at Vegas - chassis No. 454.

Denny Hamlin: Coming off a seventh-place finish at Texas last fall after missing this race last season due to injury.  The finish was his ninth top 10 in 16 starts, which includes wins in both races in 2010.  Hamlin - who finished 12th at Las Vegas last month - has posted three top 10s in the last four races on 1.5-mile tracks, including a win at Homestead-Miami Speedway to close last season.  Hamlin has recorded top-two starting positions in the last two "knockout" qualifying sessions he's participated in.

Brian Vickers: Subbed for the injured Denny Hamlin in this race last year and went on to post his first top 10 (eighth) in 15 Texas starts.  This weekend, Vickers will make his first Texas start with Michael Waltrip Racing in a new car (chassis No. 803).

Marcos Ambrose: Coming off his second consecutive top-five finish on a short track and will now look to improve on his 24th-place finish at the 1.5-mile Las Vegas Motor Speedway last month. Ambrose, who scored his lone top 10 at Texas in the 2011 spring race, will pilot a new chassis in the Duck Commander 500.

Tony Stewart: Captured his second Texas win in the 2011 fall race. Stewart missed the fall Texas race last season due to injury, but has posted a 12.9 average finish in nine starts with Stewart-Haas Racing. Stewart will be looking to score his first top 10 in the spring Texas race since 2009 driving the same car (chassis No. 754) that he raced to an 11th-place finish last month at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, the first 1.5-mile track of the season.

AJ Allmendinger: In the last two races of the season Allmendinger has finished in the top 12, the first time JTG Daugherty has done that since 2010. This weekend, he will make his first start at Texas with the team, and first there since 2012. Allmendinger has a pair of 10th-place finishes at Texas coming in 2009 and 2011 fall race with Richard Petty Motorsports.

Clint Bowyer: Has posted a 12.0 average finish in four Texas starts with Michael Waltrip Racing.  He's coming off his ninth top 10 in 16 overall starts and has posted a 12.6 average finish in the last five races on 1.5-mile tracks dating back to Kansas Speedway last fall.  This weekend, Bowyer will return in the same car (chassis No. 802) that he finished 23rd with at Las Vegas Motor Speedway last month after hitting the wall late in the race.  The car will carry a Willie’s Duck Diner paint scheme in conjunction with the race title sponsor, Duck Commander.

Greg Biffle: Currently holds the Texas race record (160.577 mph) after winning this event in 2012.  That win was his second at the track and 12th top 10 in 20 starts there.  Last year in this event, Biffle finished fourth for his 10th consecutive top 10 at Texas.  Biffle has not finished in the top 10 in the last five races on 1.5-mile tracks dating back to Kansas Speedway last fall, but will look to turn that around with a new car (chassis No. 896) in the Duck Commander 500.

Kyle Larson: Finished 23rd in first Texas Cup start last season driving the No. 51 Chevrolet.  He finished 19th at Las Vegas Motor Speedway last month - his first start on a 1.5-mile track in the No. 42 Chevrolet with crew chief Chris Heroy.  Larson does like racing on 1.5-mile tracks, especially the ones with worn-out surfaces where you have to search for grip.

Kurt Busch: Coming off his first win with Stewart-Haas Racing and first overall in 83 races, last weekend at Martinsville Speedway.  Busch, who has one win at Texas with Team Penske in 2009, last finished in the top 10 there in the 2012 fall race when he drove for Furniture Row Racing.  After finishing 26th in his first start on a 1.5-mile track (Las Vegas Motor Speedway) with Stewart-Haas, Busch will look for a better result when he climbs into a new car (chassis No. 860) for the Duck Commander 500.

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Untitled Document Texas Driver Stats

Driver Races Avg Start Avg Fin. Avg Pos *Driver Rating
Matt Kenseth 23 15.6 8.3 9.0 107.2
Jimmie Johnson 21 8.5 8.7 10.3 106.4
Greg Biffle 20 12.7 15.1 12.3 101.8
Kyle Busch 17 13.9 14.0 11.0 101.6
Tony Stewart 23 18.0 13.1 10.8 99.1
Carl Edwards 18 13.4 15.6 12.3 97.5
D. Earnhardt Jr. 23 11.3 13.7 11.5 93.8
Denny Hamlin 16 16.8 10.7 12.7 93.3
Clint Bowyer 16 14.4 12.8 12.6 92.3
Jeff Gordon 26 12.2 17.8 14.5 90.6
Martin Truex Jr. 17 16.4 15.0 13.7 89.1
Kurt Busch 22 16.4 15.3 14.9 88.0
Kevin Harvick 22 21.1 12.3 14.8 85.5
Kasey Kahne 19 11.8 18.0 15.0 85.0
Marcos Ambrose 11 15.7 19.5 14.6 81.7
Jamie McMurray 20 24.1 18.4 19.5 75.6
Brad Keselowski 11 23.1 19.9 19.5 74.8
David Reutimann 12 20.7 25.2 20.1 72.7
Ryan Newman 21 17.0 19.2 20.4 72.4
Joey Logano 11 17.1 20.0 20.6 72.0
A J Allmendinger 10 18.8 21.6 21.9 69.7
Paul Menard 15 19.0 20.6 20.8 69.3
David Ragan 14 16.2 23.4 21.2 69.1
Aric Almirola 6 18.5 20.8 22.3 66.1
Casey Mears 19 25.1 20.1 22.7 66.1
Brian Vickers 15 22.6 22.8 22.5 65.4
Trevor Bayne 7 19.9 21.1 22.5 65.1
R. Stenhouse Jr. 2 13.0 28.0 27.3 61.9
Parker Kligerman 1 23.0 18.0 23.5 61.8
David Stremme 6 25.3 22.8 25.5 58.7
Kyle Larson 1 36.0 23.0 26.5 58.5
Reed Sorenson 11 28.8 32.5 29.5 54.4
Austin Dillon 2 16.5 27.5 29.3 53.9
David Gilliland 15 30.3 29.2 28.2 52.7
Danica Patrick 3 34.7 25.7 28.8 51.2
Travis Kvapil 13 37.2 28.5 31.6 45.1
J.J. Yeley 11 29.3 35.0 33.6 44.1
Dave Blaney 22 33.0 28.5 32.5 43.3
Landon Cassill 7 34.4 31.1 32.0 43.2
Joe Nemechek 23 25.8 31.9 35.3 38.6
Josh Wise 5 35.2 37.0 37.1 33.8
M. McDowell 9 32.1 39.2 39.0 33.0
Justin Allgaier 0 - - - -
Michael Annett 0 - - - -
Alex Bowman 0 - - - -
Ryan Truex 0 - - - -
Cole Whitt 0 - - - -

*Last 18 Races
Untitled Document Laps Led in the Last 18 Races at Texas

Rank Driver % of Laps Led Laps Led
1 Greg Biffle 12.2 733
2 Tony Stewart 12.5 712
3 Jimmie Johnson 11.6 698
4 Kyle Busch 12.2 694
5 Matt Kenseth 10.4 625
6 Carl Edwards 8.8 531
7 Jeff Gordon 7.8 467
8 Kurt Busch 3.9 233
9 Martin Truex Jr. 4.1 231
10 Dale Earnhardt Jr. 3.2 195
11 Brad Keselowski 3.8 139
12 Denny Hamlin 2.4 131
13 Clint Bowyer 1.6 84
14 Kasey Kahne 1.2 70
14 Jamie McMurray 1.2 70
16 David Reutimann 1.1 45
17 Casey Mears 0.7 39
18 Jeff Burton 0.6 35
19 Joey Logano 0.9 32
20 Ryan Newman 0.3 20
21 Brian Vickers 0.4 19
22 David Ragan 0.3 15
23 Michael Waltrip 0.3 8
24 J.J. Yeley 0.1 5
25 Trevor Bayne 0.2 4
26 Kevin Harvick 0.0 3
27 Marcos Ambrose 0.1 2
27 David Gilliland 0.0 2
27 Travis Kvapil 0.0 2
27 Michael McDowell 0.1 2
27 Paul Menard 0.0 2
27 Reed Sorenson 0.1 2
33 Dave Blaney 0.0 1
33 David Stremme 0.0 1
Texas Green Flag Passes

Number of passes a driver had under green conditions in the last 18 races at texas.

Driver Green Flag Passes
Kevin Harvick 1457
Jamie McMurray 1454
Kurt Busch 1372
Ryan Newman 1363
Matt Kenseth 1360
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1343
Jeff Burton 1322
Kasey Kahne 1304
Denny Hamlin 1301
Greg Biffle 1194
Casey Mears 1175
Carl Edwards 1164
Martin Truex Jr. 1164
Paul Menard 1135
Clint Bowyer 1129
Jeff Gordon 1118
Jimmie Johnson 1058
Kyle Busch 1054
Tony Stewart 1045
David Ragan 1033
Marcos Ambrose 970
David Gilliland 945
Bobby Labonte 904
Brad Keselowski 903
David Reutimann 901
Brian Vickers 895
Joey Logano 869
A J Allmendinger 863
Trevor Bayne 827
Dave Blaney 731
Travis Kvapil 706
Aric Almirola 563
Sam Hornish Jr. 504
Reed Sorenson 464
Michael Waltrip 453
Landon Cassill 438
J.J. Yeley 377
Joe Nemechek 367
David Stremme 337
Danica Patrick 227
Michael McDowell 173
Kyle Larson 137
Terry Labonte 136
Austin Dillon 132
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 114
Parker Kligerman 99
Josh Wise 74
Timmy Hill 34
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