Driver Handicaps: Dover

NASCAR

Jimmie Johnson (143) and Kyle Busch (150) combined to lead 293 laps in the spring at Dover. (Photo: Getty Images)

Driver Averages Loop Data eBook (pdf)Driver Ratings Past Winners 

To assist in making your fantasy racing picks, MRN.com's Jeff Wackerlin breaks down all the stats and information to help steer you toward Sunday's AAA 400 at Dover International Speedway.

Who's HOT at Dover
Jimmie Johnson leads all drivers in wins (7) and laps led (2,461).
Matt Kenseth, who experienced engine issues in the spring in his first track start with
Joe Gibbs Racing, has finished in the top five in seven of the last 10 races.
Carl Edwards leads all drivers with an 8.6 average finish.
Kyle Busch has finished seventh or better in six of the last seven races, including a win
in the 2010 spring race.
Clint Bowyer is the only driver that has finished in the top 10 in the last five races.
Jeff Gordon and Brad Keselowski are tied for the best average finish (6.0) in the last
three races.

Who to Keep an Eye On at Dover
Kevin Harvick (7.7), Joey Logano (8.3), Dale Earnhardt Jr. (8.3), Mark Martin (8.7) and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (12.5 - 2 races) each rank in the top 10 in average finish in the last three races at Dover with the current Goodyear tire combination.
Kasey Kahne will be driving the same car he finished first and second with, respectively, in both races at Bristol Motor Speedway this season.
Kurt Busch (2011 fall Dover winner) and Greg Biffle (two-time Dover winner) have posted respective average finishes of 8.5 and 9.5 in the first two races of the Chase.
• Martin Truex Jr. has finished in the top 10 in two of his last three starts at Dover.  He was running in the top three in the spring before mechanical issues ended his race early.
• Brian Vickers, who will be driving a new chassis, will be making his first Dover Cup start since 2011.
• Jeff Burton has posted a 12.7 average finish in the last 10 Dover races, including runner-up finishes in both races in 2010.
• Denny Hamlin has won the pole for the last two races at Dover.  Hamlin finished eighth in this event last year, but finished 34th this past June after a blown right-front tire with less than 25 laps remaining ended his day in 34th.

Chase drivers in bold.

Note: Sprint Cup teams will run the same left- and right-side tire combinations that they have competed with in the last three races at Dover.

Be sure to check back with MRN.com for practice speeds on Friday and Saturday.

Dover Qualifying Facts

*Active Pole Leaders
*Best Starting Average
Races Won from Starting Pos.
1. Mark Martin - 5
1. Ryan Newman - 9.3
Pole - 13 times
2. Jeff Gordon - 4
2. Jimmie Johnson - 10.3
Top Five - 52 times
Ryan Newman - 4
3. Kurt Busch - 11.2
Top 10 - 68 times
3. Jimmie Johnson - 3 4. Jeff Gordon - 11.8
Top 15 - 76 times
4. D. Hamlin, M. Truex Jr. - 2 5. Kyle Busch - 11.8
Worst - 37th, one time

* - Must be entered in the AAA 400.

*Best Average Finish at Dover

Last # of Races
Driver
Avg. Fin.
Two Races
Jeff Gordon
2.5
Four Races
Jimmie Johnson
6.0
Six Races
Jimmie Johnson
5.7
Eight Races
Jimmie Johnson
6.4
10 Races
Jimmie Johnson
5.7

* - The best average finish is based off a driver who has competed in every race during that time span.

Gen-6 Car Performers (28 Races)

Wins
Top Fives
Top 10s
1. Matt Kenseth - 7
1. Kyle Busch - 13
1. Jimmie Johnson - 17
2. Jimmie Johnson - 4
2. Jimmie Johnson - 11
Kyle Busch - 17
Kyle Busch - 4
3. Kurt Busch - 9
2. Matt Kenseth - 15
3. Kevin Harvick - 2
4. Five drivers with 8
Dale Earnhardt Jr. - 15
Kasey Kahne - 2
5. Kevin Harvick - 7
3. Five drivers with 14
Carl Edwards - 2
Brad Keselowski - 7
Laps Led
Average Finish
Poles
1. Matt Kenseth - 1344
1. Carl Edwards - 12.1
1. Denny Hamlin - 4
2. Jimmie Johnson - 1180
2. Jimmie Johnson - 12.2
2. Kyle Busch - 3
3. Kyle Busch - 1169
3. Clint Bowyer - 12.4
3. Matt Kenseth, Ryan Newman 
4. Kasey Kahne - 497
4. Kevin Harvick - 12.6
Joey Logano, Jimmie Johnson - 2
5. Carl Edwards - 448
5. Matt Kenseth - 13.0

Chase Drivers at Dover (by standings)

Driver Races Wins Top 5 Top 10  Led Avg. Fin. Poles
Matt Kenseth 29 2 13 18 775 13.6 1
Kyle Busch 17 2 8 11 900 13.3 0
Jimmie Johnson 23 7 11 16 2461 9.0 3
Carl Edwards 18 1 8 12 532 8.6 0
Greg Biffle 22 2 6 10 463 12.5 1
Kevin Harvick 25 0 3 11 145 15.6 1
Kurt Busch 26 1 6 8 426 18.1 0
Jeff Gordon 41 4 16 23 2292 11.8 4
Ryan Newman 23 3 6 11 842 13.1 4
Clint Bowyer 15 0 1 8 34 12.7 0
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 27 1 5 9 368 16.9 0
Joey Logano 9 0 1 5 1 16.8 0
Kasey Kahne 19 0 1 5 90 24.5 0

Dover Loop Data Stat Leaders (2005-2013, 17 Races)

*Fastest Early in a Run
*Fastest Late in a Run
Avg. Running Position
1. Jimmie Johnson
1. Jimmie Johnson
1. Jimmie Johnson - 7.1
2. Matt Kenseth
2. Matt Kenseth
2. Matt Kenseth - 9.4
3. Kyle Busch
3. Greg Biffle
3. Carl Edwards - 10.3
4. Greg Biffle
4. Carl Edwards
4. Mark Martin - 10.5
5. Kurt Busch
5. Kyle Busch
5. Greg Biffle - 10.7
Laps in Top 15
*Quality Passes
*Driver Rating
1. Jimmie Johnson - 5862
1. Carl Edwards - 469
1. Jimmie Johnson - 119.6
2. Matt Kenseth - 5429
2. Greg Biffle - 464
2. Matt Kenseth - 107.3
3. Mark Martin - 5214
3. Jeff Gordon - 458
3. Kyle Busch - 105.6
4. Kyle Busch - 5174
4. Matt Kenseth - 449
4. Carl Edwards - 102.9
5. Greg Biffle - 5109
5. Kyle Busch - 432
5. Greg Biffle - 101.4

*Fastest Early In a Run: Ranks each driver during the first 25 percent of laps run since a pit stop.
*Fastest Late In a Run: Ranks each driver during last 25 percent of laps run since a pit stop.
*Quality Passes: Passing a car running in the Top 15 while under a green flag.
*Driver Rating: Formula combining the following categories: Wins, Finishes, Top-15 Finishes, Average Running Position While on Lead Lap, Average Speed Under Green, Fastest Lap, Led Most Laps, Lead-Lap Finish. Maximum: 150 points per race.


For a look at all the pre-race Loop Data for Dover, view the AAA 400 Pre-Race Loop Data eBook (pdf)

Season Loop Data Leaders

*Fastest Early in a Run
*Fastest Late in a Run
Avg. Running Position
1. Matt Kenseth
1. Jimmie Johnson
1. Matt Kenseth - 8.5
2. Kasey Kahne
2. Kasey Kahne
2. Jimmie Johnson - 10.6
3. Jimmie Johnson
3. Brad Keselowski
3. Kyle Busch - 11.2
4. Kyle Busch
4. Matt Kenseth
4. Carl Edwards - 12.5
5. Brad Keselowski
5. Kyle Busch
5. Brad Keselowski - 12.6
Laps in Top 15
*Quality Passes
*Driver Rating
1. Matt Kenseth - 6896
1. Dale Earnhardt Jr. - 1370
1. Matt Kenseth - 110.8
2. Kevin Harvick - 6213
2. Kurt Busch - 1297
2. Jimmie Johnson - 105.5
3. Kyle Busch - 6154
3. Martin Truex Jr. - 1285
3. Kyle Busch - 103.5
4. Jimmie Johnson - 5892
4. Matt Kenseth - 1258
4. Kasey Kahne - 98.2
5. Kasey Kahne - 5828
5. Brad Keselowski - 1218
5. Kurt Busch - 94.9

*Fastest Early In a Run: Ranks each driver during the first 25 percent of laps run since a pit stop.
*Fastest Late In a Run: Ranks each driver during last 25 percent of laps run since a pit stop.
*Quality Passes: Passing a car running in the Top 15 while under a green flag.
*Driver Rating: Formula combining the following categories: Wins, Finishes, Top-15 Finishes, Average Running Position While on Lead Lap, Average Speed Under Green, Fastest Lap, Led Most Laps, Lead-Lap Finish. Maximum: 150 points per race.


MRN.com Writer Picks

Jeff Wackerlin: Kyle Busch
Pete Pistone: Greg Biffle
Dustin Long: Jimmie Johnson
John Singler: Greg Biffle

Top 20 Driver Notes - Ordered by current standings
(All stats/notes are in regards to Dover unless noted)

Matt Kenseth: Led 29 laps and finished 40th in the spring due to engine failure in first track start with Joe Gibbs Racing; 18 top 10s, including two wins, in previous 28 starts; Second-best driver rating (107.3) in the last 17 races; Won the last race on a concrete surface at Bristol Motor Speedway after leading 149 laps; First among the Chase drivers in laps led (263) in the three races on concrete tracks (Bristol and Dover) in 2013.

Kyle Busch: Two-time winner of the spring race; Has finished seventh or better in six of the last seven races; Has combined to lead 452 laps in last two starts; Third-best driver rating (105.6) in the last 17 races; Led a race-high 150 laps and finished fourth in the spring; 13.3 average finish and 452 laps led in the three races with the current tire combination; Best average finish (5.7) among the Chase drivers in the three races on concrete tracks (Bristol and Dover) in 2013.

Jimmie Johnson: Leads all drivers in wins (7) and laps led (2,461); Led 143 laps and finished 17th in the spring to snap streak of five consecutive top 10s; Best driver rating (119.6) in the last 17 races; 7.3 average finish and 475 laps led in the three races with the current tire combination; 25.0 average finish and 143 laps led in the three races on concrete tracks (Dover and Bristol) in 2013; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 797) that he raced in the spring at Dover.

Carl Edwards: Leads all drivers in average finish (8.6); Winner of this event in 2007; Fourth-best driver rating (102.9) in the last 17 races; 23.7 average finish and 119 laps led in the three races on concrete tracks (Dover and Bristol) in 2013; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 808) that he finished eighth with at Pocono Raceway in August.

Greg Biffle: Last of two wins came in this event in 2008; Has yet to finish in the top 10 in last six starts; Fifth-best driver rating (101.4) in the last 17 races; 11.7 average finish and no laps led in the three races on concrete tracks (Dover and Bristol) in 2013; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 844) that he last finished 15th with at Atlanta Motor Speedway.

Kevin Harvick: 9.6 average finish in last eight starts; Best finish in 25 starts is second in the 2012 spring race; 18.7 average finish and eight laps led in the three races on concrete tracks (Dover and Bristol) in 2013; 7.7 average finish in the three races with the current tire combination; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 425) that he last finished ninth with at Atlanta Motor Speedway.

Kurt Busch: Finished 12th in the spring in first track start with Furniture Row Racing; Led 90 laps and won this event in 2011 with Penske Racing; 18.1 average finish in 26 starts; 15.7 average finish and 63 laps led in the three races on concrete tracks (Dover and Bristol) in 2013.

Jeff Gordon: 2.5 average finish in last two starts; Last of four wins came in the 2001 spring race; 11.8 average finish and 2,292 laps led in 41 starts; Tied for the best average finish (6.0) in the three races with the current tire combination; 14.7 average finish and 66 laps led in the three races on concrete tracks (Dover and Bristol) in 2013.

Ryan Newman: 17.2 average finish and 29 laps led in nine starts with Stewart-Haas Racing; Last of three wins in 23 starts came in this event in 2004 with Penske Racing; 21.3 average finish and no laps led in the three races on concrete tracks (Dover and Bristol) in 2013; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 682) that he used in a test at Texas Motor Speedway in April.

Clint Bowyer: Only driver to have finished in the top 10 in each of the last five races; 6.7 average finish in three starts with Michael Waltrip Racing; 8.3 average finish and 50 laps led in the three races on concrete tracks (Dover and Bristol) in 2013; 6.7 average finish in the three races with the current tire combination; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 777) that he last led 48 laps with at Atlanta Motor Speedway before engine issues knocked him out of the race.

Dale Earnhardt Jr: Coming off second top 10 in 11 starts with Hendrick Motorsports; 8.3 average finish in last three starts; 8.3 average finish in the three races with the current tire combination; 8.7 average finish and 32 laps led in the three races on concrete tracks (Dover and Bristol) in 2013; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 745) that he last finished 10th with at Bristol Motor Speedway; This car has yet to finish outside the top 10 in three starts.

Joey Logano: Finished seventh in the spring in first track start with Penske Racing; Has finished in the top 10 in his last three starts; 16.8 average finish in nine overall starts; 8.3 average finish in the three races with the current tire combination; 9.7 average finish and one lap led in the three races on concrete tracks (Dover and Bristol) in 2013; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 865) in the AAA 400.

Kasey Kahne: 15.7 average finish in three starts with Hendrick Motorsports; Last of five top 10s (ninth) in 19 overall starts came in the 2012 spring race; 8.7 average finish and 111 laps led in the three races on concrete tracks (Dover and Bristol) in 2013; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 769) that he last finished second with at Bristol Motor Speedway and won with there in the spring.

Brad Keselowski: Defending race winner; Finished fifth in the spring; Tied for the best average finish (6.0) in the three races with the current tire combination; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 866) in the AAA 400.

Jamie McMurray: 18.7 average finish in 21 starts; Has yet to finish in the top 10 in last 10 starts.

Martin Truex Jr.: 19.3 average finish in seven starts with Michael Waltrip Racing; Won the 2007 spring race with Dale Earnhardt, Inc.; Last of six top 10s in 15 overall starts came in this event last year in sixth.

Paul Menard: 19.8 average finish in five starts with Richard Childress Racing; 20.2 average finish in 12 overall starts; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 414) that he last finished sixth with at Bristol.

Aric Almirola: 14.3 average finish in three starts; Only top 10 (sixth) came in the 2012 spring race; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 855) that he last finished 20th with at Atlanta Motor Speedway.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr: 12.5 average finish in two starts; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 815) that he last finished 18th with at Darlington Raceway.

Jeff Burton: 15.6 average finish in 39 starts; Finished second in both races in 2010; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 429) in the AAA 400.

Photos

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Untitled Document Dover Driver Stats
Driver Races Avg Start Avg Finish *Driver Rating
Jimmie Johnson 23 10.3 9.0 119.6
Matt Kenseth 29 15.7 13.6 107.3
Kyle Busch 17 11.8 13.3 105.6
Carl Edwards 18 15.2 8.6 102.9
Greg Biffle 22 12.0 12.5 101.4
Mark Martin 54 12.2 12.2 97.3
Kurt Busch 26 11.2 18.1 93.6
Jeff Gordon 41 11.8 11.8 92.7
Clint Bowyer 15 17.4 12.7 91.1
Martin Truex Jr. 15 13.6 17.1 89.9
Ryan Newman 23 9.3 13.1 88.4
Jeff Burton 39 24.9 15.6 86.4
Brad Keselowski 7 15.6 13.0 85.3
Kevin Harvick 25 19.7 15.6 83.1
Denny Hamlin 15 12.9 20.5 82.4
Kasey Kahne 19 12.5 21.5 80.2
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 27 15.0 17.0 78.7
A J Allmendinger 11 14.5 22.6 77.6
Jamie McMurray 21 16.5 18.7 77.5
Aric Almirola 3 22.0 14.3 76.7
Joey Logano 9 15.7 16.8 76.2
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 2 20.0 12.5 75.7
David Reutimann 11 17.9 20.5 73.5
Marcos Ambrose 10 23.3 18.1 73.1
Brian Vickers 14 16.8 19.6 72.1
Juan Montoya 13 19.2 21.9 72.0
Paul Menard 12 20.1 20.2 64.8
Casey Mears 21 28.8 22.8 63.5
David Ragan 14 26.7 23.9 57.6
Reed Sorenson 12 27.9 27.0 56.2
Dave Blaney 24 31.8 28.7 49.7
David Gilliland 14 29.9 29.4 49.1
Travis Kvapil 13 29.5 28.2 47.5
David Stremme 11 30.7 33.2 45.4
J.J. Yeley 13 33.8 34.0 45.3
Danica Patrick 2 38.5 26.0 43.0
Tony Raines 17 34.9 32.6 43.0
Landon Cassill 6 27.7 34.2 43.0
Joe Nemechek 38 23.4 27.8 42.0
Josh Wise 3 30.0 33.0 38.6
Michael McDowell 10 34.7 38.3 34.0
Timmy Hill 1 42.0 35.0 28.3
Ryan Truex 0 - - -
* Last 17 Races
Paythefan
Dover Green Flag Passes

Number of passes a driver had under green conditions in the last 17 races at Dover.

Rank Driver Green Flag Passes
1 Jamie McMurray 797
2 Jeff Burton 793
3 Kevin Harvick 749
4 Greg Biffle 723
5 Kurt Busch 714
6 Jeff Gordon 711
7 Tony Stewart 709
8 Mark Martin 701
9 Kasey Kahne 695
10 Carl Edwards 694
11 Dale Earnhardt Jr. 681
12 Casey Mears 669
13 Matt Kenseth 658
14 Kyle Busch 644
14 Ryan Newman 644
16 Bobby Labonte 639
17 Clint Bowyer 629
18 Paul Menard 598
19 Denny Hamlin 584
20 David Gilliland 582
21 Martin Truex Jr. 568
22 Jimmie Johnson 556
23 David Ragan 545
24 Marcos Ambrose 543
25 Brian Vickers 511
26 Juan Pablo Montoya 503
27 A J Allmendinger 497
28 David Reutimann 461
29 Joey Logano 453
30 Regan Smith 425
31 Reed Sorenson 423
32 Michael Waltrip 405
33 Dave Blaney 396
34 Travis Kvapil 377
35 Brad Keselowski 363
36 J.J. Yeley 340
37 Elliott Sadler 334
38 David Stremme 330
39 Tony Raines 282
40 Scott Riggs 269
41 Joe Nemechek 264
42 Sam Hornish Jr. 228
43 Ken Schrader 173
44 Mike Bliss 161
45 Aric Almirola 158
46 Landon Cassill 125
46 Scott Speed 125
48 Michael McDowell 118
49 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 99
50 Danica Patrick 82
51 Johnny Sauter 55
52 Kenny Wallace 51
53 Josh Wise 49
54 Austin Dillon 36
55 Timmy Hill 10
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